Severe Thunderstorm Warning 356, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
217 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...EXCLUDING HAYWOOD COUNTY...FOR CONVECTION ENTERING
NC FROM TN. SUFFICIENT DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NC.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY. A VORT
LOBE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS EVENING.
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WILL BE CARRIED AWAY FORM THE TN BORDER...AND EVEN THEN...ONLY IN
NC. THE VORT TRACK OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE FROM
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT...SENDING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE VEERS SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. THIS
NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SERVE TO LIMIT CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS WILL BE CARRIED ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
IN NC.

THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 100. ON WEDNESDAY...FALLING HEIGHTS
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES...THOUGH
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S TOMORROW...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 103 DEGREES...SO ANTIHERO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
I COMPLETELY BLEW OFF THE NAM WITH TEMPS LOWERING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BY DAY TWO.  GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST BELIEVABLE WITH RIDGE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MIDWEEK. THERE ARE A FEW
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT MOST OF
THE FORCEING IS WELL TO OUR NORTH.   TEMPS REMAIN HIGH WITH HEAT
INDECES AROUND 100 IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN ACROSS THE SE AS A WEAK TROF MOVES EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND.
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY THIS PACKAGE...WHICH ADVERTISES
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FA ON SUN. THE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA ON MON BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD TO THE COAST BY TUES.
THE DEGREE OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
AS IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE SUCH A PROGRESSION. POPS REFLECT
THIS UNCERTAINTY AS SOLID CHCS RUN FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY. WARMEST TEMPS ON SAT...THEN SOME
GENERAL COOLING IS FEATURED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TUES HIGHS ARE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY BE A
DEPARTURE FORM WHAT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR THIS MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUPPORTING A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION THERE THAN IN SC.
COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY...AND SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY IS ALL THAT WILL BE CARRIED AT THIS TIME...WITH
CUMULONIMBUS MENTIONED AT NC SITES.

MAV MOS SUPPORTS A MENTION OF AT LEAST MVFR BR AT KAVL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS COOL AIR POOLS IN THE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY STARTS WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. ISOLATED LATE DAY TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LOW VFR FOG AND HAZE IS ANTICIPATED EACH MORNING
AROUND DAYBREAK...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE ON
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING A GREATER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLY
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR OUR NC COUNTIES AT
THE SPECIAL REQUEST OF THE NCFS...DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS...
HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS AND MODERATE TRANSPORT WINDS. CONSULTATION WILL
TAKE PLACE ON WEDNESDAY TO DETERMINE THE NEED FOR YET ANOTHER RED
FLAG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ029.
NC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ070-071-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ008-009-
     011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...VAD
LONG TERM...VAD
AVIATION...JAT
FIRE WEATHER...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1139 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-221545-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
1139 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ010-221545-
RABUN-
1139 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ017-018-026-028-SCZ001>007-010-221545-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-
1139 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-072-502-504-506-508-510-221545-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-CABARRUS-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-
1139 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ070-221545-
GASTON-
1139 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.
   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ029-SCZ008-009-011>014-019-221545-
ELBERT-CHEROKEE-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1139 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ071-082-221545-
MECKLENBURG-UNION NC-
1139 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.
   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DICARLO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE OLD FORT           35.59N 82.13W
08/21/2007                   MCDOWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR OLD FORT-SUGAR
            HILL RD. AND BETHLAHEM RD.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N BRYSON CITY         35.48N 83.45W
08/21/2007                   SWAIN              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ON GREASY BRANCH ROAD.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
429 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NNW SPINDALE          35.45N 81.97W
08/21/2007                   RUTHERFORD         NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ALL OVER.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
431 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N BRYSON CITY         35.48N 83.45W
08/21/2007                   SWAIN              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ON GREASY BRANCH ROAD.

&&

KRENTZ

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