Red Flag Warning 28, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS THIS RIDGE WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 12 UTC THIS MORNING A 500 MB RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR SAVANNAH
GA...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN TODAY...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO BRUSH OUR
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J.KG WILL BE LOCATED. MOISTURE IS NOT EXACTLY
IDEAL...AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL LIMIT CONVECTION EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONTINUED IN THE NC MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN THE LEE.

TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ON TRACK WITH 06Z MAV GUIDANCE...SUPPORTING
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE RAISED A DEGREE
IN SOME FOOTHILL LOCATIONS PER GUIDANCE...AND ON A FEW RIDGETOPS FOR
A BETTER FIT WITH SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS FROM THE
ADJUSTED MAV GUIDANCE MIX OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100
DEGREES...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT FROM
CHARLOTTE TO ELBERTON...WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
AREAS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 60S IN THE MTN VALLEYS
AND L70S EAST. MOS GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE SUPPORTS A MENTION OF
MTN VALLEY FOG AFTER 6Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL MASS FIELDS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FORECAST BY
WED. THE NAM IS STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IT
PUSHES INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WED AFTN. THE GFS DOESN/T HAVE THIS
FEATURE AT ALL. HPC HAS DISCOUNTED THE NAM SOLUTION...CITING THE
MODEL/S TENDENCY TO OVER-DEEPEN MID-LEVEL TROFS PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. I LIKE THE GFS AS WELL...AND I/VE GONE JUST ABOUT
EXCLUSIVELY WITH IT FOR THIS PACKAGE. ON WED THIS MEANS HIGHS STILL
HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN TIER. WITH NO SFC CONVERGENCE AND WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS...ONLY THE HIGHER MTN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE OF
SEEING CONVECTION.

ON WED NIGHT THE NAM DEVELOPS A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE LEE
WITH IT/S SPURIOUS FRONT. THE GFS IS DRIER AND I HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE MET MOS IS A GOOD 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV IN THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON THU. WHILE I SURE WISH THIS WOULD
HAPPEN...I/M GOING WHOLE HOG WITH THE WARMER GFS WITH MAX TEMPS
AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
THERE MAY BE JUST A HAIR BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AS THE GFS
HAS A LITTLE BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE...BUT I/VE INCLUDED NOTHING
HIGHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WESTERLY LLVL FLOW AND LLVL THICKNESSES STILL AOA 1440 METERS ON THE
GFS INDICATE THAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRI AND SAT. I RAISED MAX
TEMPS A COUPLE DEG ON FRI AND 2 TO 4 DEG ON SATURDAY. I KEPT THE
CHANCE POPS IN THE NC MTNS SAT AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL STILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY THE GFS LAYER RH/S INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. WE/VE SEEN THIS
SEVERAL TIMES BEFORE...ONLY TO HAVE THE RIDGE VERIFY STRONGER AND
MUCH DRIER...BUT THIS DOES MAKE A COUPLE RUNS IN A ROW WHERE THE GFS
IMPLIED BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LET/S HOPE IT
PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LIGHT BR/HZ MAY LINGER AT KAVL UNTIL 13Z. DEEP RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. SFC
WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION BETWEEN 8-10 KTS
AFTER 14Z. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...A S/W WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. THIS FEATURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISO TO SCT
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN BORDER. I WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KAVL FROM 21-24Z FOR SHRA AND DISTANT CB. CONVECTION MAY
APPROACH KHKY...KGSP/KGMU...AND KCLT AFTER 0Z WED...HOWEVER...CHCS
APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. MAV MOS SUPPORTS A
MENTION OF AT LEAST MVFR BR AT KAVL AFTER 6Z...I WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. ISOLATED LATE DAY TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND LIGHT FOG AND HAZE IS ANTICIPATED EACH MORNING
AROUND DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS TODAY...AUG 21...MAY FALL JUST
SHORT OF RECORD LEVELS AT KGSP AND KCLT. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
KCLT...KGSP...AND KAVL FOR TODAY ARE:

KCLT......103/1983
KGSP......102/1983
KAVL......100/1983 THE ALL TIME RECORD TEMPERATURE AT KAVL

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ070-071-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ008-009-
     011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...BSH/MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH/NED
CLIMATE...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-221445-
RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
1038 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS
POSSIBLE ...THOUGH MOST STORMS WILL ONLY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ017-018-026-028-SCZ001>007-010-221445-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-
1038 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 THROUGH
SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON ANY OF THESE DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 THROUGH
SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON ANY OF THESE DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-072-502-504-506-508-510-221445-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-CABARRUS-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-
1038 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE
...THOUGH MOST STORMS WILL ONLY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ070-221445-
GASTON-
1038 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ029-NCZ071-082-SCZ008-009-011>014-019-221445-
ELBERT-MECKLENBURG-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1038 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 HEAT ADVISORY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 THROUGH
SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON ANY OF THESE DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DICARLO