Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CENTER OF 590DM RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON THE DIURNAL TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AIR MASS TSRA. OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HRS...EXPECT SCT
PULSE TSRA TO CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRDIOR IN THE LEE OF THE NC MTNS. STM MOTIONS WILL
REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS...GENERALLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THE STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO SLOW STM MOTIONS AND K-INDEX VALUES 35-40...ISO
EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF MTN VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM WAS USED FOR THURS. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY AND A SMALL S/W COULD AUGMENT THE HIGH
TERRAIN LIFT LATE THURS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...I ANTICIPATE THAT THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW TODAY/S
TRENDS. I WILL PAINT SCT SHRA/TSRA STARTING AROUND 16Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CONTINUATION OF THE EXPECTED HEIGHT FALLS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW ATOP THE CWFA EVEN SLATED
TO BECOME SLIGHTLY CYCLONICALLY CURVED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
FRONTAL ZONE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE CWFA AT
THIS JUNCTURE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AFT/EVE...ESPECIALLY ACRS NC WHERE LARGER SCALE LIFT WILL BE
GREATER. GRANTED...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...THE INCREASE IN MID-LVL FLOW IS
STILL MODEST...PERHAPS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP SVR STORMS ISOLATED...BUT
MULTI-CELL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. CWFA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD PRESSING FRONTAL ZONE SATURDAY WITH 27/12 UTC OP GFS
AND 27/09 UTC SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS MASS FIELDS ARE
CONCERNED...PROGGED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS...
ESPECIALLY ACRS MY EASTERN ZONES WHERE LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL...VERY FEW NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA. WITH THAT IN MIND...I KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AROUND THROUGH 12Z SUN. FROM SUN AFTERNOON ONWARD...UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST WITH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPS. A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE THROUGH TUES
MORNING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUES AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SWRLY FLOW RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERN TROUGH REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EVERYWHERE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS MORNING AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED AS
SWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MID WEEK WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT
AND THE UPSTATE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING EVERYWHERE BUT THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR...AND THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT MAY HAVE THUNDERSTORM ISSUES
THIS EVENING WOULD BE KHKY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELDS
IN DECLINE OVER SC TAF SITES...AND THE SAME IS EXPECTED AT KCLT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. KHKY MAY BE SLOW TO LOSE LOW CLOUDS WITH
CONVECTION CONTINUING LONGER IN THE VICINITY. ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG
IS EXPECTED WITH THE AIR MASS ONLY GETTING MORE MOIST. KAVL IS
EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO LOW MVFR VISIBILITY AT A MINIMUM...AS COOL
AIR POOLS IN THE VALLEY. HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
KHKY TO REACH IFR VISIBILITY. EVEN KCLT HAS SOME LIGHT RAIN...AND
UPPER END MVFR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED THERE. CEILING PROBLEMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED UNLESS KAVL OR KHKY WERE TO GO EVEN LOWER WITH
VISIBILITY.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BEGINNING AT MIDDAY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREADING
EAST. AT THIS POINT ONLY THUNDER IN THE VICINITY WILL BE CARRIED AT
KAVL FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CARRIED AT ALL
SITES. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER IN THE AFTERNOON...INTRODUCING A
SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND IF THIS
TREND WERE TO INCREASE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD BE MORE LIMITED
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE VFR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-281000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
547 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL AS LARGE AS PENNIES AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 60 MPH. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER QUICKLY IF A
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTS YOUR LOCATION TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             11 NNW CLYDE            35.68N 82.99W
06/27/2007  E0.75 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT FROM THE SHELTON LAUREL COMMUNITY. HAIL UP
            TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES FELL FOR 20 MINUTES.

&&

SGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             1 E STONY POINT         35.87N 81.03W
06/27/2007  E0.75 INCH       IREDELL            NC   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL IN STONY POINT.

&&

SGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

NCZ504-272200-
GREATER BURKE-
500 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 459 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF VALDESE...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
MORGANTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...

VALDESE...RUTHERFORD COLLEGE AND CONNELLY SPRINGS...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
512 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

NCZ056-502-504-272215-
CATAWBA-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
512 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BURKE...
SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND WESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM
EDT...

AT 507 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HICKORY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN BURKE...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND WESTERN
CATAWBA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

HICKORY...ST. STEPHENS...LONGVIEW AND ICARD...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             NW BARNARDSVILLE        35.78N 82.45W
06/27/2007  E0.75 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

0436 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BARNARDSVILLE           35.78N 82.45W
06/27/2007                   BUNCOMBE           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR BARNARDSVILLE.

&&

SGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
656 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANITE QUARRY          35.61N 80.45W
06/27/2007                   ROWAN              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            2 LARGE TREES DOWN NEAR GRANITE QUARRY...ONE ON HELIG
            ROAD...ONE NEAR 2800 BLOCK OLD CONCORD ROAD JUST SOUTH OF
            SALISBURY.

0623 PM     HAIL             GRANITE QUARRY          35.61N 80.45W
06/27/2007  E0.75 INCH       ROWAN              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR INTERSECTION OF SAINT PAULS CHURCH ROAD AND OLD
            CONCORD ROAD.

&&

SGL