Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CENTER OF 590DM RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON THE DIURNAL TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AIR MASS TSRA. OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HRS...EXPECT SCT
PULSE TSRA TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
ISO CONVECTION OVER SC AND GA. LAPS CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATES
1500-2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN. STM MOTIONS WILL REMAIN 10KTS OR
LESS...GENERALLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW A
FEW OF THE STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...DUE TO SLOW STM
MOTIONS AND K-INDEX VALUES 35-40...ISO EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
AREAS OF MTN VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

I USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THURS. H5 HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY
FALL DURING THE DAY AND A SMALL S/W COULD AUGMENT THE HIGH TERRAIN
LIFT LATE THURS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...I ANTICIPATE THAT THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW TODAY/S TRENDS. I
WILL PAINT SCT SHRA/TSRA STARTING AROUND 16Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CONTINUATION OF THE EXPECTED HEIGHT FALLS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW ATOP THE CWFA EVEN SLATED
TO BECOME SLIGHTLY CYCLONICALLY CURVED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
FRONTAL ZONE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE CWFA AT
THIS JUNCTURE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AFT/EVE...ESPECIALLY ACRS NC WHERE LARGER SCALE LIFT WILL BE
GREATER. GRANTED...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...THE INCREASE IN MID-LVL FLOW IS
STILL MODEST...PERHAPS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP SVR STORMS ISOLATED...BUT
MULTI-CELL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. CWFA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD PRESSING FRONTAL ZONE SATURDAY WITH 27/12 UTC OP GFS
AND 27/09 UTC SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS MASS FIELDS ARE
CONCERNED...PROGGED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS...
ESPECIALLY ACRS MY EASTERN ZONES WHERE LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL...VERY FEW NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA. WITH THAT IN MIND...I KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AROUND THROUGH 12Z SUN. FROM SUN AFTERNOON ONWARD...UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST WITH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPS. A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE THROUGH TUES
MORNING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUES AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SWRLY FLOW RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERN TROUGH REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EVERYWHERE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS MORNING AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED AS
SWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MID WEEK WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT
AND THE UPSTATE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PULSE HIGH TERRAIN SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AROUND KAVL AND KHKY INTO
THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL CU AROUND 5-6 KFT WILL
REMAIN SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...CU WILL
DISSIPATE AND SEA BREEZE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT FEW TO SCT CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY FALL TO 3 KTS OR LESS BY 6Z. THE THIN
HIGH CLOUDS...LIGHT WIND...AND FRESH RAINFALL WILL SUPPORT MTN FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT. KAVL SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOG BY 10Z...POSSIBLY
LOWER TOWARD SUNRISE. NON-MTN TERMINALS MAY SEE VFR TO MVFR FOG/HZ
LATE TONIGHT. FU NEAR KHKY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE VFR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-281000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
547 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL AS LARGE AS PENNIES AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 60 MPH. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER QUICKLY IF A
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTS YOUR LOCATION TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
140 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

NCZ504-271830-
GREATER BURKE-
140 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 140 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF VALDESE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MORGANTON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RUTHERFORD
  COLLEGE...PLEASANT GROVE...VALDESE...ICARD...HILDEBRAN...DREXEL AND
  CONNELLY SPRINGS.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

NCZ052-271915-
HAYWOOD-
249 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM EDT...

AT 249 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WATERVILLE...OR 13 MILES
NORTH OF WAYNESVILLE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO COVE CREEK.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH

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