Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO REMAIN HIGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUTNAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO MIGRATE
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SO SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE ADVERTISED THOSE AREAS. SHOULD
SEE CONVECTION GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION
PERHAPS OF THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE NAM DEVELOPS MORE
CONVECTION THERE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE
CARRIED CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT STRATUS IN MANY
AREAS.

BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW A WELL DEFINED FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ON
TUE. THAT COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITH A CHANCE
EVERYWHERRE ELSE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE ABOVE GENERAL MOS POPS
TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE MAV THUNDER POPS. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET
FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR WED AND THU IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROUGHLY
WHAT SHOULD EXPECT TO BE SEEING FOR LATE JUNE...SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID AS THE CWFA REMAINS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIPRES.
DEEPER FRONTAL BAND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE SE TOWARD THE CWFA BY
LATE DAY THURSDAY AS WILL THE BETTER WESTERLY FLOW WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS STARTING TO FALL A TAD. BUT...THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FCST
ACRS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE THINKING OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. EASTERN TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FA FROM THE
NORTH FRI AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHEST POPS ARE
ADVERTISED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE FA. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DIMINISH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RUN CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE AIR SPACE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUNDER ALREADY
AFFECTING KAVL AND HAVE A TEMPO TIL 20Z THERE FOR THUNDER AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...BEGAN CB REMARKS AT 20Z...WITH VCTS
AT 22Z AS EXPECT CONVECTION WILL TEND TO MIGRATE INTO THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE
FINISHED AT LEAST AT THE TAF SITES BY 04Z. STRATUS DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT ACROSS THE UPSTATE....MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND SEE NO
REASON WHY THERE WILL NOT BE A REPEAT OF THIS EARLY TUESDAY EVEN
THOUGH GUIDANCE NOT PICKING UP ON IT. IN FACT...UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND
MOISTURE LOOK BETTER EARLY TUE. THEREFORE...HAVE FORECAST CEILINGS
IN THE 1000-1500FT RANGE VSBYS 4-5 MILES....EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE LOW
IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST AND 1 MILE IN FOG. STATUS SHOULD LIFT
GRADUALLY TUE MORNING TO A LOW VFR CEILING BY 16Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PRODCUE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-502-504.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-501-
503-505>510-SCZ001>014-019-261000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
600 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE PENNY TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY.

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-502-504-261000-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
600 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE PENNY TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

NCZ048-251845-
MADISON-
145 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MADISON COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

AT 145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WHITEROCK...WALNUT...SPRING CREEK...MARSHALL...MARS HILL AND FAUST.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

GAZ029-252015-
ELBERT-
317 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN ELBERT COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF ELBERTON...MOVING NORTH AT 5
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  RUCKERSVILLE...MIDDLETON...FORTSONIA...ELBERTON...DEWY ROSE AND
  BOWMAN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

NCZ049-050-252015-
MITCHELL-YANCEY-
319 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MITCHELL AND
NORTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 319 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF MICAVILLE...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  MICAVILLE...LEDGER...BURNSVILLE...BANDANA AND BAKERSVILLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

GAZ017-252030-
HABERSHAM-
334 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN HABERSHAM COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM EDT...

AT 334 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF ALTO...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CLARKESVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DEMOREST...
  CORNELIA AND CLARKESVILLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

SCZ010-011-252045-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-
350 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ANDERSON AND WESTERN
ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF LOWNDESVILLE...OR 14 MILES EAST
OF ELBERTON...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SECESSION
  LAKE...LOWNDESVILLE...IVA...CALHOUN FALLS AND ANTREVILLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

NCZ033-252030-
AVERY-
353 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AVERY COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM EDT...

AT 353 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF NEWLAND...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SUGAR
  MOUNTAIN...NEWLAND...MINNEAPOLIS...GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN...ELK PARK
  AND BANNER ELK.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH