Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO REMAIN HIGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS GENERATED AREAS OF STRATUS ACROSS THE UPSTATE
AND NC FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE INCREASE
EARLY ON. HOWEVER...EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER INTO A CU
FIELD BY 17Z WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY. SHORT TERM
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE CURRENT FORECAST...SO
WILL TRIM BACK A COUPLE DEGREES. HAVE MODIFIED POP FIELDS SOMEWHAT
BASED ON 12Z NAM TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO TENNESSEE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN
TRANSITIONING THE HIGHER POPS SE INTO THE FOOTHILLS/UPSTATE/PIEDMONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE SHADED POPS UPWARD TOWARD MOS
THUNDER POPS. EXCPECT THERE WILL BE SOLID SCATTERED COVERAGE...
POSSIBLY NUMEROUS MOUNTAINS. DESPITE MOISTURE INCREASE...SPC
MESOANALYSIS DCAPES STILL RATHER HIGH ACROSS OUR REGION...GENERALLY
IN THE 800-1200J WHICH STILL SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPSLOPE FORCING SHOULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED DIURNAL MTN
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LESS THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY WRAPS WEST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION ON WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED. A
TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME DRYING IS INDICATED FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
BOUNDARY SLIPPING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE ADJUSTED KGSP/KAND/KGNU TO HOLD MVFR STRATO CUMULUS IN UNTIL
ABOUT 17Z. MVFR HAZE RESTRICTION WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO LOW VFR BY
17Z. THREAT OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...VCTS WILL BE CARRIED ONLY AT KAVL FOR NOW...WITH
JUST CB CLOUD GROUPS ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAYT WITH 18Z PACKAGE/DISCUSSION.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-502-504.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-501-
503-505>510-SCZ001>014-019-261000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
600 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE PENNY TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY.

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-502-504-261000-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
600 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE PENNY TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEK. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

NCZ051-058-251800-
GRAHAM-SWAIN-
1256 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GRAHAM AND WESTERN
SWAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 1254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROBBINSVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FONTANA
  LAKE...SANTEETLAH AND FONTANA VILLAGE.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

NCZ052-053-251815-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-
108 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HAYWOOD AND WESTERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CRUSO...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ASHEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...I-26 AT
I-40...UNC ASHEVILLE...WOODFIN...LEICESTER...CANDLER...BILTMORE
FOREST...BENT CREEK AND ASHEVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

NCZ048-251845-
MADISON-
145 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MADISON COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

AT 145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WHITEROCK...WALNUT...SPRING CREEK...MARSHALL...MARS HILL AND FAUST.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH