Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
509 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY...AND WILL LINGER IN THE AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GRIDS FOR A FIRE
WEATHER SPOT FORECAST. THEREFORE...HAVE SENT AN UPDATE TO THE PUBLIC
PRODUCTS AND GRIDS AS WELL TO TAKE THE CHANGES INTO ACCOUNT. THE
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POP FROM SCT TO ISOLATED OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE UPSTATE AND WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL BUILD
AS AN UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FILLS WHILE
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER TX. THE GFS HAS YET ANOTHER LOW OVER GA
THAT WOULD PREVENT HEIGHTS FROM RISING AS FAST AS THE NAM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTH...WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING FROM THE EAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH NO SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT OR MONDAY...AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...
TOGETHER WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
     WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. INSTABILITY... MOISTURE
AND FREEZING LEVELS SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE GRADUALLY AS HEIGHTS RISE...DEW
POINT CREEP UP...AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. EVEN THE
THE GFS BASED MAV...WHOSE PARENT MODEL CARRIES LOWER HEIGHTS OVER
GA...HAS THE SOUTHERN STATIONS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY
AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH MEANS THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IF ANY UPPER FORCING FOR THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION. THE GFS LOOKS WAY TOO OVERDONE
WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT MONDAY
EVENING WHICH CASTS DOUBT ON THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL RUN...SO THE
NAM WAS FAVORED. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW DEEP
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SO CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT THERE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL APPEARS THAT DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH IS ON TRACK FOR LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
THURS...APPROACHING THE FA ON FRI.  ALSO...WITH IT BEING SUMMER IT
IS DIFFICULT FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA VERY PROGRESSIVELY
SO ANTICIPATE THE FRONT TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY PRIOR TO WASHING OUT AND/OR BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY
STRENGTHENING GREAT LAKES HIGH. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCE POPS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL TRANSITION TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY
THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AS TROUGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING EAST TOWARD THE
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT...SO THUNDER IN
THE VICINITY WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL. TO THE EAST...CONVECTION WILL
BE LESS CONCENTRATED...AND WILL NOT BE CARRIED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PREDOMINANT LOW CLOUD
LAYER WILL BE WELL ABOVE MVFR HEIGHTS...AND HORIZONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPICTIONS SUPPORT LITTLE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IN GA AND
SC...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SURFACE MOISTURE IS IS ON THE INCREASE...AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE WITH TIME. LOW END VFR VISIBILITY WILL BE
CARRIED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAWN MONDAY...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE MODIFIED BASED ON PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WITH UPCOMING
CONVECTION.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-502-504.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-501-
503-505>510-SCZ001>014-019-252115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
515 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-502-504-252115-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
515 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

SCZ007-242130-
SPARTANBURG-
430 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
INMAN TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOILING SPRINGS SC...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  INMAN BY 435 PM EDT.
  LAKE BOWEN BY 450 PM EDT.
  MAYO BY 500 PM EDT.
  CHESNEE BY 530 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
449 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

SCZ007-242145-
SPARTANBURG-
449 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 448 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE BOWEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...

LAKE BOWEN...FINGERVILLE...AND CHESNEE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

SIMILAR STORMS TODAY HAVE PRODUCED VERY FREQUENT AND INTENSE
LIGHTNING. BOATERS ON LAKE BOWEN SHOULD FIND A SAFE PORT IMMEDIATELY

IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES.
MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO
UNPLUG UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

NCZ048-242200-
MADISON-
458 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS...OR 13 MILES
NORTH OF MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
537 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             7 E FLETCHER            35.43N 82.38W
06/24/2007  E0.88 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT BERNIE MTN ON YOUNGS GAP ROAD.

0400 PM     HAIL             7 E SKYLAND             35.48N 82.40W
06/24/2007  E0.75 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            3/4 INCH HAIL ON BURNIE RD AND YOUNGS GAP ROAD IN
            BUNCOMBE NEAR HENDERSON COUNTY LINE.

&&

TBENTHALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             HARRIS                  35.24N 81.87W
06/24/2007  E0.75 INCH       RUTHERFORD         NC   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO DIME SIZE HAIL ON JACK MCKINNEY ROAD.

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 W SHELBY              35.29N 81.68W
06/24/2007                   CLEVELAND          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN AND TREES ON POWER LINES ON HWY 74 NEAR
            MOORESBORO.

0612 PM     HAIL             1 W SHELBY              35.29N 81.56W
06/24/2007  E0.75 INCH       CLEVELAND          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL ON GOODGE GROVE CHURCH ROAD.

&&

TBENTHALL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
642 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

NCZ071-082-242345-
MECKLENBURG-UNION-
642 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MECKLENBURG AND NORTHERN
UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 636 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MINT HILL...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF UNC CHARLOTTE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MINT HILL
  AND FAIRVIEW.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

KRENTZ