Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
118 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...HOWEVER
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TO KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL BUILD
AS AN UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FILLS WHILE
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER TX. THE GFS HAS YET ANOTHER LOW OVER GA
THAT WOULD PREVENT HEIGHTS FROM RISING AS FAST AS THE NAM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTH...WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING FROM THE EAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH NO SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT OR MONDAY...AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...
TOGETHER WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
     WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. INSTABILITY... MOISTURE
AND FREEZING LEVELS SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE GRADUALLY AS HEIGHTS RISE...DEW
POINT CREEP UP...AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. EVEN THE
THE GFS BASED MAV...WHOSE PARENT MODEL CARRIES LOWER HEIGHTS OVER
GA...HAS THE SOUTHERN STATIONS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
FIRE DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD
THE WARMER MAV MOS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANY WEAK
THICKNESS FALLS WILL HAVE TO BE WRAPPED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ON ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS START FALLING THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST
IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE...CLIMATE NORMALS SEEM REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...STARTING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING EAST TOWARD THE
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT...SO THUNDER IN
THE VICINITY WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL. TO THE EAST...CONVECTION WILL
BE LESS CONCENTRATED...AND WILL NOT BE CARRIED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PREDOMINANT LOW CLOUD
LAYER WILL BE WELL ABOVE MVFR HEIGHTS...AND HORIZONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPICTIONS SUPPORT LITTLE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IN GA AND
SC...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SURFACE MOISTURE IS IS ON THE INCREASE...AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE WITH TIME. LOW END VFR VISIBILITY WILL BE
CARRIED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAWN MONDAY...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE MODIFIED BASED ON PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WITH UPCOMING
CONVECTION.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
123 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-251730-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
123 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1006 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW GLEN ALPINE        35.70N 81.82W
06/23/2007                   BURKE              NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ONE TREE...AND SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN SW OF GLEN
            ALPINE. ALSO HAIL OF UNKNOWN SIZE.

&&

BSH