Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWEST NC MTNS AND THE NE
GA MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH WHERE THE RUC AND
SREF HAD PREDICTED THE GREATEST INSTABILITY TO BE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER FOR A WHILE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE MTNS AND ALONG THE
LEE SLOPES AS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH
0300 UTC. FREEZING LEVEL IS UP AROUND 14000 FEET AND SHEAR IS VERY
WEAK...BUT THE SFC DELTA THETA-E/S ARE IN THE 25 DEG RANGE...SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW PULSE SEVERE THROUGH SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV AND MET FOR LOWS.

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OK/AR BORDER WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE DAY ON TUE. LAYER RH VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH...AND
MODELS SHOW THAT DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. AS A RESULT...SREF SB-CAPES RANGE FROM 1000-1500
ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW AGAIN
ON ACCOUNT OF WEAK SHEAR AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GOOD WITH THE MOIST AIR AND I HAVE LOW END LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE NC...GA AND SC MTNS...AND THE UPSTATE FROM ANDERSON
WESTWARD. AIRMASS LOOKS A LITTLE MORE STABLE TO THE EAST WHERE POPS
TAPER INTO THE LOW CHANCE RANGE EAST OF I-77.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM/SREF/GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DEPENDENT ON
THE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE REDUCTION OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. I WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ALONG THE TN LINE
THROUGH 6Z WED...WITH CHC POPS EAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD ASH OUT AFTER 6Z LEAVING JUST SCT SHRA AND TSRA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF CWA BY
12Z WED...WITH DRY AIR EXPECTED TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE MTNS
THROUGH THE MORNING. I WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING FROM 12Z WED TO 0Z
THU ALONG AND EAST OF I-85...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER SRN GA AND NRN FL THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN H5 TROF REMAINS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
ALONG THE COAST FOR THURSDAY...LIMITING POPS TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
I USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NCEP ENS MEAN/GFS FOR MID LEVEL FEATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE. THU THROUGH SAT MORNING...THE CWA REMAINS
UNDER A WEAK H5 RIDGE LOBE...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A DRY AND WARM
AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH AN
INVERSION LINGERING AROUND H7 BOTH THU AND FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA
WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF A APPROACHING S/W. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DOMINATE INVERSION EAST OF THE
MTNS. HOWEVER...GREATER MOISTURE RETURN UNDER H7 OVER THE MTNS
LIMITS THE INVERSION TO A VERY SHALLOW LAYER. GFS COMPUTED LI/S FALL
TO MINUS 5 OVER THE MTNS WITH CAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. I WILL
ADVERTISE RIDGE TOP CHCS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCHC OVER
THE REST OF THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS RIPPLES THE
S/W AXIS OVER THE CWA SUN MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PLAIN VIEW INSTABILITY INDICES SHOW WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY...FEATURING CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LI/S BELOW MINUS 3 WITH
SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA ON SUN. H5 RIDGE RETURNS ON
MON...SUPPORTING LOW POPS OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE
AND WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY YIELD ISO SHRA/TSRA.

I USED A BLEND OF THE HPC AND MEN VALUES FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS AND
DWPTS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW TSTMS POPPING OVER THE MTNS ATTM...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY WELL
WEST OF KAVL AND KAND. WHILE DWPTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...TIME SECTIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY OVERNIGHT...AND DON/T LOOK
FOR ANY STRATUS. I DID INCLUDE SOME FOG AND HAZE...USING PERSISTENCE
WITH THIS MORNINGS CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA
AND TSTMS ON TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. HAVE VCSH IN AT MOST SITES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE MORNING HRS.

OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FOR TUE-WED AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N THU BUT LOCATION OF WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCERTAIN FRI-SAT SO EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS. EARLY MORNING MVFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-
     037-057-069>072-082.
SC...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

NCZ036-037-057-069>072-082-SCZ003-006>008-010>013-019-191900-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
246 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

GAZ028-029-NCZ033-035-048>050-053-056-065-068-501>510-SCZ009-014-
191900-
HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
YORK-CHESTER-
246 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-191900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
246 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING 60 MPH WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SCZ001-002-004-005-191900-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
246 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING 60 MPH WINDS.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1007 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             4 SSE WAXHAW            34.87N 80.72W
06/12/2007  E0.88 INCH       UNION              NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            JACKSON FD REPORTED NICKEL SIZED HAIL THAT LASTED 12-15
            MINUTES.

&&

GAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

GAZ010-SCZ001-181930-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-RABUN-
234 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN RABUN AND NORTHWESTERN
OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 234 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKEMONT...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN RABUN AND NORTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

LONG CREEK AND MOUNTAIN REST...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

NCZ064-182015-
TRANSYLVANIA-
317 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 314 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE TOXAWAY...OR 18 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ROSMAN...
  LAKE TOXAWAY AND BALSAM GROVE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

BSH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>