Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. BY SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING HOT
AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CLOUD EDGE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. CAPES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS... BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WILL DETRACT FROM
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
WILL BE TOWARD THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING BUT WILL BECOME MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH.  TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ARE LIKELY TO
PROMOTE CONVECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
GFS INDICATES SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.  IN THE
WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM... AIR MASS OVER EASTERN PORTION OF CWA WILL BE
LESS UNSTABLE DURING FRIDAY... BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER
CAPES WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN ZONES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
PROMOTE AFTERNOON CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.  WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN SPC DAY2 DISCUSSION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE
AREA FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH TWO LOWS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  THE FIRST LOW IN THE ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND CUT OFF THE EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH MOVES
OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.  THEN SECOND LOW DROPS IN OVER THE
TOP OF THE GREAT LAKES HIGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BY
MIDWEEK.  THE FRONT REALLY DOESNT PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH...AS IS
USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO I EXPECT IT TO BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.  NOTHING SPECIAL IN THE TEMP.  KEEPING
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ON DAYS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  STAYED
CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHO PREFERRED NOT TO FOLLOW GFS IN FAVOR OF
EUROPEAN MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD DECK MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF CWA ON THE HEELS OF A
LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND HAS LIFTED A LITTLE AND DEVELOPED A FEW BREAKS
AS HEATING MIXES THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  QUITE A BIT OF TCU AND SHORT
LINES OF CBS HAVE FORMED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. CELLS
WILL EXHIBIT MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.  IFR CIG AND VSBY
WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.  ELSEWHERE EXPECT MVFR CIG
AND VSBY AT OR ABOVE 6 MILES.  THE LIGHT UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PROMOTE
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNSET.  THEREAFTER...
EXPECT CONVECTIVE STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS AIR MASS
ALOFT DESTABILIZES BECAUSE OF APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE AND COLD POOL
ALOFT FROM THE NORTH.  IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE STORMS
DURING THE WEEKEND.  BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
INTERESTING DISCUSSION FROM A USER THIS MORNING ABOUT RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OFF RADAR  IN CHARLOTTE AREA.  CURRENT BIAS FROM STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON IS 0.52.  I SUSPECT THAT A LOT OF THIS WAS HAIL
CONTAMINATION...WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS BAD TODAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE RADAR IS STILL OVERESTIMATING RAINFALL RATES.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...LGL
LONG TERM...VAD
AVIATION...LGL
EQUIPMENT...VAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
449 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
449 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH.

MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...IT WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE. HOWEVER...LIGHT UPSLOPE
WINDS WILL TEND TO CONCENTRATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEE SLOPES
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AS
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY EVENING...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LAST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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