Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 141851
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

NCC113-141930-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-070614T1930Z/
MACON NC-
251 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL MACON COUNTY...

AT 246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR OTTO...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

LAT...LON 3524 8344 3523 8339 3516 8325 3500 8334
      3500 8349 3499 8351 3502 8352 3503 8355
      3508 8358

$$

KRENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1048 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A LOW IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO HELP BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW MORE
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND THE UPPER
TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROVIDE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING BACK WARMER...DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER THE SPC DISCUSSION... MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE A BIT LESS STEEP THAN YESTERDAY.  NONETHELESS... THE CWA
REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... SO CERTAINLY EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING PROVIDED
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO GET THINGS GOING. THICK CLOUD COVER SPREADING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN AND EASTERN WILL PROBABLY LESSEN THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF CWA. HOWEVER...
THE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO HELP TO ESTABLISH A REGION OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING THAT WILL PROMOTE LIFE. USING THE RUC AS A STARTING POINT
FOR FORECASTING SOUTHWESTWARD EDGE OF CLOUDS... WILL PLACE IT
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR CLT NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HEATING AND MIXING WILL PROBABLY BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER A BIT
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO COMPLICATE
AFTERNOON CLOUD PATTERN. NONETHELESS... BELIEVE BEST REGIONS FOR
CONVECTION TO INITIATE WILL BE OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS THEN ALONG
BOUNDARY DEFINED BY CLOUDS AND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS. COLD POOL
ALOFT MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD AREA THIS EVENING WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE SO THAT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CURRENT AFTERNOON POP
FORECAST EVEN THOUGH POPS IN NORTHEASTERN ZONES MIGHT BE A BIT TOO
HIGH WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN. WILL CONSIDER LOWERING THEM IN A LATER
ISSUANCE IF CLOUD COVER DOES NOT BREAK UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY.  COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS WHILE THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WILL BE MORE
UNSTABLE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
IN THE NORTHEAST TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST.  IF THERE ARE MORE
SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY...THAT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A GSP TO TOCCOA LINE.  SIGNIFICANT
CAPES AND LIS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THOSE AREAS.
A FEW MORE VORTICITY MAXES WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE THERE SHOULD BE ONGOING
CONVECTION OF THE KINDER VARIETY FRIDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
TRANSITION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH
AND WEST WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF THE REMAINING VORT
MAXES WILL LEAVE THE AREA.

EXPECT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS.  THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THE COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS LIFT THE UPPER TROUGH OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.  THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER IN DOING THIS AS THE CLOSED
LOW OPENS UP BY 6Z SUNDAY.  THE NAM MAINTAINS THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH
THE END OF ITS CYCLE AT 12Z SUNDAY.  BOTH MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
CONSISTENT IN PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.  AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY.  HPC HAS
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHING OUR MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING. AT ISSUANCE TIME KGSP WAS 1/4SM FG...AS WAS KAVL. OTHER
SITES ARE GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. ONCE THE FOG AND STRATUS
BURNS OFF...WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN BY 14 UTC...IT WILL BE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE VCTS MENTIONED AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...BUT AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...THEY COULD VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY AT KAND AND KGSP. THINK THAT KCLT AND KHKY WILL STAY MORE OUT
OF THE EAST TO ENE. LATER TONIGHT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTEN
THE LOW LEVELS...AND I THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
STRATUS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS FRI AND SAT
MORNINGS WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON TSTMS FRI AND NOT AS GOOD A CHANCE ON SAT. ON SUN ND MON
THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT WITH LESS OF A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
MORNING VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...LGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
449 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
449 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH.

MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...IT WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE. HOWEVER...LIGHT UPSLOPE
WINDS WILL TEND TO CONCENTRATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEE SLOPES
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AS
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY EVENING...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LAST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
107 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

NCZ053-065-141800-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
107 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 101 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF BAT CAVE...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

NCZ071-141815-
MECKLENBURG-
117 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MECKLENBURG COUNTY THROUGH 215 PM
EDT...

AT 109 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
UNC CHARLOTTE TO MINT HILL...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  I-77 AT I-85 BY 125 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
123 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

NCZ082-141830-
UNION-
123 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH 230
PM EDT...

AT 117 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF WINGATE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
MONROE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WINGATE BY 130 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

NCZ065-507-141845-
HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
141 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND
WESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 134 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BAT CAVE...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

NCZ059-063-141915-
NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
211 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH 315 PM
EDT...

AT 204 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CULLOWHEE...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF SYLVA...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

KRENTZ