Freeze Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Hart County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
347 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DRY FORECAST IN THE FIRST TWO PERIODS. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION DUE TO A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST. THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX LATER TODAY...BUT IN THE MEAN TIME THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED TODAY FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES INTO THE REGION...THE LOW TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO
STATION POLICY...WE DO NOT ISSUE FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL APRIL 15. HOWEVER...THE FREEZE WATCH WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING TONIGHT FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS EAST COAST TROF EVEN DEEPER FRIDAY BRINGING
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED VERY COLD AIR MASS. NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT
WITH ITS SHORT WAVE. IT HAS IT WEAKER AND MORE CHANNELED THAN THE
GFS OR CANADIAN. ALSO GFS HAS MORE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE
MORE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET MAX THAN THE FLATTER NAM. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM HAS A DRY FORECAST WHILE THE GFS IS QUITE WET. THE
CANADIAN...SREF AND MREF ALL HAVE PRECIP DEVELOPING AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE AND MOVES OFF THE COAST. THAT
SAID...SREF AND MREF KEEP THE NON-MOUNTAIN PRECIP TO OUR EAST. SREF
ALSO HAS VERY HIGH CHC PRECIP OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POP IN THE LOW CHC RANGE FOR THE BORDER COUNTIES
WITH SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NRN FOOTHILL MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS. SREF ALSO LINGERS CHC AND SLIGHT CHC SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
THICKNESSES AND VALLEY TEMPS RISE ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO KEEP ANY
PRECIP A MIX EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...THEN SNOW SHOWERS
ONLY P-TYPE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS.

OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS DRY FORECAST CONTINUES...BUT COULD BE SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN TIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND ALL LOCATIONS
SATURDAY AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THEN. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT LIKELY THE COLDEST LOWS. EXPECT FREEZE WARNINGS TO BE
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THOSE PERIODS APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE EAST COAST TROF ACROSS THE PLAINS
SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS THIS WAVE PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM WAVE AND MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GFS DEVELOPS A GULF
LOW AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT KEEPS IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
FOR OUR CWFA TO REMAIN DRY. CANADIAN AND MREF ALSO SHOW PRECIP TO
OUR SOUTH BUT DRY FOR THE CWFA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY
THEN A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY.
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL REMAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THREAT FINALLY ENDS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...
ONLY CLOUDS ARE FEW TO SCT CIRRUS. PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND LOW CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TIGHT WHICH IS
CREATING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND SETTLE NEAR SUNSET AS
GRADIENT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES. SOME CLOUDINESS ARRIVING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS AT THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THUS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ANY INDICATION OF THAT UNTIL
LATER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA...AND THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER. BASED ON CALLS MADE TO FIRE DISTRICTS...FUEL MOISTURE
STILL IS AT A REASONABLE LEVEL TO SOMEWHAT SUPPRESS WILD FIRES.
THIS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE UPCOMING DAY SHIFT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.

NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     048>050-052-053-059-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.

SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ004>014-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...DEO/RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...DEO
FIRE WEATHER...DEO

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