Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

September 25, 2007Ionia County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 25, 2007, 7:00 PM EDT for Ionia County, Michigan. It was in force for 45 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Sep 25, 2007, 7:00 PM EDT (23:00 UTC)
Expired: Sep 25, 2007, 7:45 PM EDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Ionia County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Sep 25, 7:05 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Clarksville, MI	SEVERAL TREES WHERE BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF IONIA COUNTY.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 5 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 25, 3:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 199 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -107 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1026 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 31 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KGRR 252301
SVRGRR
MIC067-252345-
/O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0095.070925T2300Z-070925T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS
HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  IONIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 657 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SARANAC...
  OR ABOUT NEAR LOWELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SARANAC AND POTTERS CORNERS BY 705 PM EDT
  BERLIN CENTER AND LAKE ODESSA BY 710 PM EDT
  TREMAINE CORNERS BY 715 PM EDT
  IONIA CO ARPT...TREMAINE CORNERS AND FERGUSON CORNERS BY 720 PM EDT
  COLLINS AND KENT CORNERS BY 725 PM EDT

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4301 8531 4308 8483 4286 8483 4278 8485
      4278 8531 4298 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 258DEG 32KT 4289 8528

$$

BEACHLER

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 252338
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
738 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

MIC067-252348-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-070925T2345Z/
IONIA MI-
738 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR IONIA COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA.
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4301 8531 4308 8483 4286 8483 4278 8485
      4278 8531 4298 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 258DEG 32KT 4296 8483

$$

LAURENS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 25, 4:07 PM EDT, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 25, 4:07 PM EDT, 2 hours 53 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
407 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

LATEST UPDATE...ALL EXCEPT AVIATION AND LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...(407 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007)
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH OHIO. WE WILL HAVE PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(407 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007)
EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING AS LINE OF STORMS MARCHES
ACROSS THE LAKE AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS MID LEVEL DRYING WILL HELP GENERATE
DOWNDRAFTS. HAIL THREAT IS MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...
WITH THE MINUS 20C WAY UP AT 25 KFT. TORNADO THREAT IS MITIGATED BY
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL MEAN THAT THEY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FAIR AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLIPS THROUGH...BUT THERE
STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SE FORECAST AREA. KEPT POPS GOING ACROSS
THE FAR SE CWA ON WED NIGHT AS GFS SHOWS SFC WAVE FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING PRECIP THERE. ECMWF REMAINS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM... (302 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007)
MAIN CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS FOR PCPN CHANCES
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY TIGHT GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVE INTO NRN LWR SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY ISN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT THE UPPER LOW IS AS IS THE
UPPER JET THAT MOVES INTO SW LWR SUNDAY MORNING. WE/LL BE BACK TO
DRY WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
AND RIDGING MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(302 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 3SM IN TSRA ACTIVITY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE THE DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...(407 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007)
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM SOUTH OF WHITEHALL OUT TO
MID-LAKE. WORST OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AS
WINDS AND WAVES ARE DIMINISHING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVE HEIGHTS TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(407 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007)
BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FROM THIS
RAIN EVENT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. A FEW URBAN AND SMALL STREAM HEADLINES COULD
BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY... BUT RIVER FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT OCEANA...LAKE...MASON
AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.
LM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM ST. JOSEPH TO WHITEHALL OUT TO
MID-LAKE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:   OSTUNO
SHORT TERM: OSTUNO
LONG TERM:  93
AVIATION:   93
MARINE:     OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY:  OSTUNO

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 25, 4:53 AM EDT, 14 hours 7 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
453 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-260900-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
453 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  SOME
LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR AND THERE MAY EVEN BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM...AND LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL
WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORM PERSISTS. THE MAIN STORM MOTION WILL BE
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN EAST AT 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TRIGGERING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ844>849-260900-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-
453 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG
WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING COULD
ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. AN INCREASED
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 25, 5:47 PM EDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
547 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARSON CITY             43.18N 84.85W
09/25/2007                   MONTCALM           MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

MKALEMBK

Local storm report, Sep 25, 6:19 PM EDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
619 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOLLAND                 42.77N 86.10W
09/25/2007  M63.00 MPH       ALLEGAN            MI   ASOS

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N HOLLAND             42.79N 86.10W
09/25/2007  M60.00 MPH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NORTH HOLLAND AT 144TH AND BUTTERNUT. SMALL LIMBS DOWN.
            MINOR STREET FLOODING.

&&

MKALEMBK

Local storm report, Sep 25, 6:44 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
644 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             PLAINWELL               42.45N 85.64W
09/25/2007  E0.75 INCH       ALLEGAN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

MKALEMBK

Local storm report, Sep 25, 6:47 PM EDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
647 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     TSTM WND GST     KENTWOOD                42.88N 85.59W
09/25/2007  E45 MPH          KENT               MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MKALEMBK

Local storm report, Sep 25, 6:52 PM EDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
652 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRAND RAPIDS            42.96N 85.66W
09/25/2007  M58 MPH          KENT               MI   ASOS

&&

MKALEMBK

Local storm report, Sep 25, 6:57 PM EDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE WESTPHALIA         42.90N 84.76W
09/25/2007                   CLINTON            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN.

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S WESTPHALIA          42.87N 84.80W
09/25/2007                   CLINTON            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN.

&&

MKALEMBK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 25, 4:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Gratiot	36 min
Sep 25, 4:45 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Barry	30 min
Sep 25, 4:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Allegan, Barry	64 min
Sep 25, 4:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Gratiot, Montcalm	31 min
Sep 25, 5:23 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		55 min
Sep 25, 5:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Allegan	49 min
Sep 25, 6:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ottawa	23 min
Sep 25, 6:21 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clinton	24 min
Sep 25, 6:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Kent	47 min
Sep 25, 6:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Barry	46 min
Sep 25, 7:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clinton	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.