Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 150755
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
355 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

MIC117-150815-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070515T0815Z/
MONTCALM MI-
355 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM EDT
FOR MONTCALM COUNTY...

AT 353 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LANGSTON...
OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF GREENVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ENTRICAN AND SIX LAKES BY 400 AM EDT
  WESTVILLE BY 405 AM EDT
  MCBRIDE...EDMORE AND WYMAN BY 410 AM EDT
  CEDAR LAKE AND VESTABURG BY 415 AM EDT

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MILES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4346 8556 4330 8556 4330 8486 4346 8487

$$
MEADE

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 150813
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
413 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

MIC117-150823-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070515T0815Z/
MONTCALM MI-
413 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONTCALM COUNTY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER
SEVERE. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4346 8556 4330 8556 4330 8486 4346 8487

$$
MEADE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM KANSAS CITY NEWD THROUGH NE WISCONSIN
TO A LOW IN ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A LONG LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION IS
ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT. A NEW BAND OF PCPN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NW CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LLJ AND SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE.
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH STORMS AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LOWER PROFILE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
THERE IS A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP...AT LEAST
EARLY ON. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOW THE MID LEVELS MOISTENING BY LATE MORNING
WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE WIND THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. I THINK THE
MAIN SVR THREAT WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON SE OF A BIV-MOP LINE. THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO PLAY AND WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG
WITH THE LIFT FROM THE FRONT. WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...BUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THAT TOO. THE LLJ
WILL ALSO BE WELL EAST OF THE CWA TOO WHICH IS ANOTHER LIMITING
FACTOR. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 40KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP BUT THIS
SHOULDN/T BE A LARGE EVENT. WE COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA THOUGH. MODELS SHOW A WAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE COLD FRONT WE COULD SEE SOME TRAINING ECHOS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WITH
THE SECONDARY LOW RIDING UP THE FRONT...WE/LL HAVE PCPN THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT
THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE.

PCPN IS BACK IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
ROTATES IN. WE/LL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER TOO SINCE WE/LL
SEE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 500 MB. 500 MB TEMPD FALL TO -27C
BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATE QUITE A BIT.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SMALL HAIL OUT OF SOME OF THE CELLS
THAT DEVELOP. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S. INSTABILITY DECREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD PUT A LID ON PCPN TOO. BACK TO DRY WX
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

93 MEADE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
440 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-151015-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
440 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO BIG RAPIDS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THAT AREA.
THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND RAPIDS
AND MT. PLEASANT BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED VERY LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

LMZ844>849-151015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-
440 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING DUE TO
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE NORTH OF MUSKEGON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... MAINLY NORTH
OF GRAND HAVEN. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE... ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF MUSKEGON.

LARGE WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED VERY LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

LAURENS