Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
443 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(443 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007)
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SHARP CHANGE TO THE REGIONS
WEATHER.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE STATE ALONG WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS.  THE QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE A RAPID
FREEZE UP OF PUDDLES AND WATER ON ROADWAYS.  AS THE COLD AIR COMES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY
HEAVY BY MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  SOME AREAS ALONG
U.S. 131 COULD RECEIVE SIX INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW.  NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE WEATHER CALMS DOWN BY CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(443 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007)
LIMITED TIME FOR A DISCUSSION DUE TO VERY CHALLENGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER SUFFICE IT TO SAY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE DAY.  STRONG WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR THIS
MORNING.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFYING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY
MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW CAUSING LOW VSBYS.  HAVE GONE WITH
HEADLINES STARTING THIS MORNING AS A QUICK FREEZE UP IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.  THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.LONG TERM...(443 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007)
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
&&

.AVIATION...(1128 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007)
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THEM TO RETURN
ALONG WITH STEADY RAIN AROUND 10Z. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO DROP BELOW TWO MILES UNTIL
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS AROUND 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
MKG...GRR...AZO AND BTL BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW GETS GOING. LAN AND JXN MAY NOT BE GETTING MUCH SNOW UNTIL
WINDS COME AROUND MORE TO THE NW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(443 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007)
CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING.  SOME WINDS TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...(443 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007)
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AS RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS MORNING.
&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...A WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT MASON...LAKE...
OSCEOLA...OCEANA...NEWAYGO...MUSKEGON...OTTAWA AND ALLEGAN COUNTIES.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT NORTH OF I94 AND INLAND
FROM WARNING COUNTIES.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR I94 CORRIDOR AND LANSING AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

LM...A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL NEAR
SHORE WATERS.

&&

SYNOPSIS:   JK
SHORT TERM: JK
LONG TERM:  JK
AVIATION:   OSTUNO
MARINE:     JK
HYDROLOGY:  JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
539 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-241045-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
539 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BAND OF STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUST TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LINE OF WEATHER. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW EXPECTED. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

LMZ844>849-241045-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
539 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH WAVES OF 12 TO 16 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. FREQUENT SNOW SQUALLS WILL RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MORE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

JK

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