Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 280554
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1253 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

WIC125-280645-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-070828T0645Z/
VILAS-
1253 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR VILAS COUNTY...

AT 1249 AM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WINCHESTER TO
MANITOWISH WATERS TO 9 MILES WEST OF LAC DU FLAMBEAU...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF IRONWOOD TO 29 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF IRONWOOD TO 18 MILES EAST OF PARK FALLS...MOVING EAST AT
55 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAC DU FLAMBEAU AND BOULDER JUNCTION BY 100 AM...
  STAR LAKE AND ST GERMAIN BY 115 AM...

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. IF YOU ARE CAMPING 
OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS 
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 4636 8995 4591 9010 4590 8916 4624 8884

$$

KURIMSKI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 280608
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
107 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

WIC125-280645-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-070828T0645Z/
VILAS-
107 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR VILAS COUNTY...

AT 106 AM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF 
PRESQUE ISLE TO STAR LAKE TO 8 MILES EAST OF LAC DU 
FLAMBEAU...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  STAR LAKE...ST GERMAIN AND SAYNER BY 115 AM...
  LAND O LAKES BY 120 AM...

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. IF YOU ARE CAMPING 
OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS 
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 4636 8995 4591 9010 4590 8916 4624 8884

$$

KURIMSKI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 280625
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
125 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

WIC125-280645-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-070828T0645Z/
VILAS-
125 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR VILAS COUNTY...

AT 121 AM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAND O LAKES TO ST 
GERMAIN...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  EAGLE RIVER BY 130 AM...
  PHELPS BY 135 AM...

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. IF OUTDOORS...MOVE
TO A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 4636 8995 4591 9010 4590 8916 4624 8884

$$

KURIMSKI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 280638
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
138 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

WIC125-280648-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-070828T0645Z/
VILAS-
138 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR VILAS COUNTY EXPIRES AT 145 AM
CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.

LAT...LON 4636 8995 4591 9010 4590 8916 4624 8884

$$

KURIMSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
339 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON
PCPN CHANCES AS COLD FRONT MAKES WAY INTO FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS SLOWER MODELS...NAM/SREF/CANADIAN. GFS
HAS BEEN TRENDING TO FAST PAST FEW DAYS. NAM ALSO SHOWED MORNING
PCPN BETTER THAN OTHERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIG MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SHIFTING INTO
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...EVIDENCED BY CLOUD FEATURES OVER
NORTHWEST WI. LIMITED DEVELOPMENT SEEN HERE AS AFTERNOON TAMDAR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG CIN IN PLACE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
FEATURE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH AREA LEAVING LOW
CHANCES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CLOSER TO WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.

FRONT TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH AREA ON TUE GIVEN UPPER FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO FRONT. FORECAST AREA PLACED IN SLIGHT RISK
OF SVR WX ON THE SPC SWODY2.  MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...BASICALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. WIND CONCERNS
MAIN THREAT...BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DESTABILIZES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALSO AS
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES.

WITH SIG SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE RELATIVELY
MILD. IF GET SOME SUNSHINE ON TUE AND GET SOME MIXING HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WARM DAY TUE WITH TEMPS IN THE SOUTH PUSHING UPPER
80S/90. AT THIS POINT WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
BOUNDARY HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER NAM.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS
TIMING EXITING FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PERIOD STARTS WITH COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE STRETCHED FROM NE TO
SW ACROSS THE CWA...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KIMT TO KISW. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL LOCATION BETWEEN THE MODELS...SO HAVE SIDED WITH A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/NAM...WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE PASSAGE. BELIEVE THAT THE GFS CONTINUES TO OVERDUE INTENSITY
OF PCPN...AND DEVELOPMENT OF MORE COMPACT LOW...AS SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
PROVIDE DECENT CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER EC WI
DURING EARLY EVENING. COMBINED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KTS ON NRN
EDGE OF LLJ AND AREA ENTERING INTO RRQ OF THE H300 JET...BELIEVE A
FEW OF THE EARLY STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. PRESENTLY THINK THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH BE WIND...BUT CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
HAIL WITH GOOD CAPE PRESENT IN THE -10 TO -30C LEVEL. EXPECT THE
PCPN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING OVER CNTL WI
DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES SE OF THE AREA.

BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING DRY H850-700 AIR ACROSS
WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH GFS/ECMWF H500 HEIGHTS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH
00Z SAT. DURING THAT PERIOD...RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO
SHIFT OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THE
EASTWARD TRANSITION OF THE AXIS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...MOST
OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIODS. DIFFERENCES APPEAR BETWEEN THE
RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWFGFS ENS ARE SHOWING FRONT MOVING THOUGH
THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
THE 00Z GFS ENS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PASSAGE ON SUN AFTN.
HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH CURRENT TIMING...BUT WILL NEED WATCHED
ON FUTURE SHIFTS.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF TAF SITES
TONIGHT. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT MAY GIVE ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM...THOUGH CHANCES TOO LOW TO ADD TO TAFS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH LEADING TO LINGERING CIGS IN
MVFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL WI. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO LEAD TO WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TE/SRF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1255 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-281330-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1255 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL...AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK WOULD BE OF STRONG
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-281330-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
THE ADJOINING WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1255 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO HIGH WAVES ON LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.