Marine Weather Statement 41, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
418 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONCERN OF FORECAST FOCUS ON
FRONT MOVEMENT AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WI. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH FLOW OVER NORTHWEST WI/EASTERN MN...SPURRING ON CURRENT
CONVECTION. STRONGER WAVE NOW SEEN OVER NORTHEAST NE. ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SIG INSTABILITY SEEN OVER CWA WITH SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 3500 IN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT. LATEST
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIN HAS ALL BUT ERODED.
SHEAR/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW POINTS TO WINDS BEING MAJOR
THREAT...EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR BOUNDARY WHERE A TORNADO MAY BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

HAVE GONE WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF FRONT UNTIL AFTER WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...SLOWER THAN NAM. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. TRENDED TOWARDS MILDER TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND LINGERED SHOWERS A BIT MORE WED MORN.

.LONG TERM...WED NGT THRU TUE

LONG TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF PD AS LARGE E-W UPPER
RDG CONTROLS MUCH OF CNTRL US WX.

HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT...BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AOB 40 OVER THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. COULD EVEN
BE ISOLD AREAS OF FROST IN LOW LYING REGIONS OF N-CNTRL WI. HIGH
PRESS REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THRU SAT.

SHRTWV TROF MOVG ALNG US/CAN BORDER AND ASSOC SFC TROF COULD
BRING SHRA/TSRA SUN-MON.

TEMPS CLOSE TO HPC GUIDE FOR DAYS 5-7. ADJ MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM GFS MOS WITH
COOL HIGH PRES ON THU AM...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF TEMPS CLOSE TO
GUID.
&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION ONGOING OVER WESTERN TAF SITES...EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO GRB AROUND 7PM. SIG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WITH SYSTEMS.
LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN OR FOG SEEN RIGHT BEHIND FRONT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TE/JKL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-291800-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.   THERE
IS A POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FOX VALLEY
AND LAKESHORE AREAS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-291800-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO HIGH WAVES ON LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TE
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
509 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S MONICO              45.54N 89.11W
08/28/2007                   ONEIDA             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            APPROX DOZEN TREES BLOWN DOWN BETWEEN PELICAN LAKE AND
            MONICO.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
520 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

WIZ020-031-035>039-045-048-049-282300-
MENOMINEE-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
520 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND POSSIBLE HAIL WERE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE STORMS WERE QUICKLY
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FOX VALLEY BETWEEN 600
PM AND 630 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL 8 PM.

JKL
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
542 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATHELSTANE              45.43N 88.09W
08/28/2007                   MARINETTE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

0507 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AMBERG                  45.50N 88.00W
08/28/2007                   MARINETTE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CRIVITZ                 45.23N 88.01W
08/28/2007                   MARINETTE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&
KURIMSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

WIZ022-038>040-048>050-282315-
DOOR-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
INCLUDING STURGEON BAY...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...ALGOMA...OSHKOSH...
CHILTON AND TWO RIVERS
555 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007

...GUST FRONT FROM THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED A GUST FRONT THAT IS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE
STORMS.  THE GUST FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER GREEN BAY AND THE FOX
CITIES BY 610 PM...THE DOOR COUNTY SHORELINE BY 615 PM...AND KEWAUNEE
AFTER 630 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL 8 PM.

JKL
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

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