Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...H3 100KT JET STREAK IS BEGINNING TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SECONDARY JET STREAK DIVING SOUTH OVER THE PAC NW. THE SFC
COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM NEAR TRENTON
TO COLBY TO AROUND THE LEOTI AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. FURTHER
WEST/NORTHWEST...POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

GFS/NAM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON WED AS 12Z RUNS CAPTURED THE
SECONDARY TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE
PERIOD. AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE SOUTHEAST ZONES MAY BE
IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND WILL TREND POPS UP WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A SECONDARY CONCERN
WED NIGHT...HOWEVER RECENT DRY WEATHER HAS ALLOWED SOILS TO DRY AND
NO PLAN FOR ANY HYDRO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THU AS MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTS RAPIDLY NE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS AROUND 70/LOWER 70S.

FRI-SUN...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS EAST
AND MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH IN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL KEEP AN
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SAT
TEMPERATURES DOWN GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL POSITION AND KEEP AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM MENTION SAT-SUN PERIODS.

MWM

DAYS 6 AND 7 (00Z MON-TUE)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
PLACEMENT OF IMPORTANT H5 FEATURES BETWEEN MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL
MODEL RUNS. 06Z GFS ENSEMBLES REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH MEAN
GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 06Z GFS RUN...AND LOOKS SIMILAR TO 00Z
ECMWF ACROSS CWA. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL
GO BASICALLY WITH CLIMATOLOGY FOR POPS WITH 20S IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. FOR TEMPS...ENSEMBLE TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TS IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

JRM

&&

.AVIATION...AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
WINDS AT KMCK WILL SHIFT TO THE NW. IN ADDITION BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
COULD SEE WDLY SCT -TSRA BETWEEN 20 AND 02Z. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT AT BOTH LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SFJ

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007 /1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE KANSAS TO CULBERTSON NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A MCCOOK TO GOVE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FOR WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION. THERE IS ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH MONDAY.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON.

JOHNSON/BULLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
358 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             PARK                    39.11N 100.36W
05/22/2007  E1.00 INCH       GOVE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL WITH ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND

&&

KJAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
408 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

COZ091-092-222245-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-
408 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND KIT
CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 406 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FLAGLER TO BOYERO TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF WILD HORSE POINT...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 391 AND 415.

MCGUIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
416 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             1 S PARK                39.10N 100.36W
05/22/2007  M0.75 INCH       GOVE               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
423 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL             4 W QUINTER             39.07N 100.31W
05/22/2007  E1.75 INCH       GOVE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LASTED 10 MINUTES

&&

KJAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
425 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             2 E TASCO               39.35N 100.25W
05/22/2007  E1.75 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
432 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             4 SE QUINTER            39.03N 100.18W
05/22/2007  M1.00 INCH       GOVE               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

FOLTZ