Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS53 KGLD 222201
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
400 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

KSC063-065-179-222245-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-070522T2245Z/
SHERIDAN KS-GRAHAM KS-GOVE KS-
500 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN GOVE...NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN
COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TASCO AROUND 505 PM CDT...
  STUDLEY AROUND 510 PM CDT...
  MORLAND AROUND 515 PM CDT...
  PENOKEE AROUND 520 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 93 AND 111.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN PARK. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF 
THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3906 10054 3894 10019 3915 10016 3955 9973
      3955 10015

$$

000 
WWUS53 KGLD 222220
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
419 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

KSC063-065-179-222245-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-070522T2245Z/
SHERIDAN KS-GRAHAM KS-GOVE KS-
519 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN GOVE...NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN
COUNTIES...

AT 519 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TASCO...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY AROUND 530 PM CDT...
  RURAL NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AROUND 530 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 93 AND 111.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3906 10054 3894 10019 3915 10016 3955 9973
      3955 10015

$$

CLK

000 
WWUS53 KGLD 222231
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
430 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

KSC063-065-179-222245-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-070522T2245Z/
SHERIDAN KS-GRAHAM KS-GOVE KS-
530 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN GOVE...NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN
COUNTIES...

AT 530 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. GOLF BALL SIZE 
HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR QUINTER AND TASCO. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 
MILES NORTH OF STUDLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AROUND 540 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 93 AND 111.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3906 10054 3894 10019 3915 10016 3955 9973
      3955 10015

$$

CLK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...H3 100KT JET STREAK IS BEGINNING TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SECONDARY JET STREAK DIVING SOUTH OVER THE PAC NW. THE SFC
COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM NEAR TRENTON
TO COLBY TO AROUND THE LEOTI AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. FURTHER
WEST/NORTHWEST...POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

GFS/NAM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON WED AS 12Z RUNS CAPTURED THE
SECONDARY TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE
PERIOD. AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE SOUTHEAST ZONES MAY BE
IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND WILL TREND POPS UP WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A SECONDARY CONCERN
WED NIGHT...HOWEVER RECENT DRY WEATHER HAS ALLOWED SOILS TO DRY AND
NO PLAN FOR ANY HYDRO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THU AS MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTS RAPIDLY NE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS AROUND 70/LOWER 70S.

FRI-SUN...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS EAST
AND MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH IN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL KEEP AN
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SAT
TEMPERATURES DOWN GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL POSITION AND KEEP AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM MENTION SAT-SUN PERIODS.

MWM

DAYS 6 AND 7 (00Z MON-TUE)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
PLACEMENT OF IMPORTANT H5 FEATURES BETWEEN MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL
MODEL RUNS. 06Z GFS ENSEMBLES REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH MEAN
GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 06Z GFS RUN...AND LOOKS SIMILAR TO 00Z
ECMWF ACROSS CWA. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL
GO BASICALLY WITH CLIMATOLOGY FOR POPS WITH 20S IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. FOR TEMPS...ENSEMBLE TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TS IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

JRM

&&

.AVIATION...AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
WINDS AT KMCK WILL SHIFT TO THE NW. IN ADDITION BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
COULD SEE WDLY SCT -TSRA BETWEEN 20 AND 02Z. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT AT BOTH LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SFJ

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007 /1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE KANSAS TO CULBERTSON NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A MCCOOK TO GOVE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FOR WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION. THERE IS ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH MONDAY.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON.

JOHNSON/BULLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
331 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

KSZ029-222200-
GOVE-
431 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 430 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 9 MILES SOUTH OF
GOVE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND 112.

CLK