Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
118 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SPRAWLING UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BE A VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. IN THAT REGARD THE GFS AND EC
WILL BE THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT.
VERY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT LONG
LIVED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO SURFACE FRONT/EXPECTED STORM MOTION...SUGGESTING
TRAINING CELLS A POSSIBILITY. MODEL QPF THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD 1 PLUS AMOUNTS IN EASTERN CWA...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH HOISTED TO
COVER THIS SCENARIO.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER THE DRY SLOT. IN FACT...IF EC AND GFS ARE RIGHT
DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS SECONDARY VORT LOBE TRACKS
WELL SOUTH AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY SOME
SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN FAR WESTERN
AREAS WHERE WRAPAROUND PRECIP MAY MIGRATE OUT OF CENTRAL COLORADO.
BY SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
DRY WESTERLY FLOW/SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY)...MODELS SHOW FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. ONLY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF NOTE APPEARS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER WEAK VORTICITY MAXES WILL BE
EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON A REGULAR BASIS...BUT AT THIS POINT
THEY LOOK TO BE LACKING MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL FOLLOW HPC
GUIDANCE FOR ALL MAJOR WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

&&

JDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT WED MAR 28 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-291300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1055 AM MDT WED MAR 28 2007 /1155 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA TODAY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY ALONG THE CO-KS BORDER BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY
6 PM MDT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND DEVELOP INTO
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS WHICH FORM.  STORM MOTION WILL BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  DESPITE THE FAST STORM MOTIONS...
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.

DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LINE WILL SLOW ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REDEVELOP AND IN TURN
RE-ENERGIZE THE LINE OF STORMS. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT (1 PM CDT) UNTIL 6 PM
MDT (7 PM CDT). STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH ARE EXPECTED.

EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER NOON MDT AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEHIND THE DRYLINE FALL TOWARD 20
PERCENT AND STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE BLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY TYPE IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT).

DDT/DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             5 E ARAPAHOE            38.85N 102.08W
03/28/2007  E1.00 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

&&

KJAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
906 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             5 E ARAPAHOE            38.85N 102.08W
03/28/2007  E1.50 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KJAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
921 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TORNADO          5 SE ARAPAHOE           38.80N 102.10W
03/28/2007                   CHEYENNE           CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0913 PM     TORNADO          7 S WESKAN              38.76N 101.96W
03/28/2007                   WALLACE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KJAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
932 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     TORNADO          SE BIRD CITY            39.75N 101.53W
03/28/2007                   CHEYENNE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KJAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
939 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             SHARON SPRINGS          38.89N 101.75W
03/28/2007  E0.75 INCH       WALLACE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KJAMES

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