Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE ROCKIES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS POPS FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT THE PROSPECTS LOOK GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A DECENT
SHORTWAVE NEAR CYS HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S AND TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE CWA.
NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE. STORMS
ALREADY FIRING ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
LIKELY POPS LOOK REASONABLE. STORM MOVEMENT IS ONLY AROUND 9 KTS AND
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH SHEAR AND CAPE
EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLAN TO MENTION LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND IN ZONES. A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD EXIST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH REMNANTS OF MCS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. SUBSIDENCE AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS DRY TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL 11 PM MDT FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES IN KANSAS.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE WEST TO THE
MID 90S IN THE EAST. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES PER THE
GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE HIGH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS SCENARIO AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. A FRONT COMES THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS. CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE STORMS COULD GO DOWN TO
MVFR WITH SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. TWEB ROUTES 263...273...275 AND
314 WILL BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WHICH COULD BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BEHIND THE STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MDT TUE JUL 3 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-041415-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1041 AM MDT TUE JUL 3 2007 /1141 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED
WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SINCE THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE AREA ON THE 4TH OF
JULY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY IN
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS TIME...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
WEAKER ALTHOUGH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BLM

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