Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
932 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.UPDATE...AREAS OF YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTIES RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
LAST NIGHT...IN ADDITION SOME OF THE HEAVY RAIN IN CHASE COUNTY
WILL DRAIN INTO DUNDY AND HITCHCOCK COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS AND
THE LATEST QPF AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS ISSUED THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW FOR YUMA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK
...CHEYENNE(KS)...AND RAWLINS COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE WHEN THE PRECIPITATION
THAT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STOP...DEPENDING ON DURATION AND
INTENSITY...THIS COULD CAUSE HYRO PROBLEMS ONCE AGAIN. SECONDARY
PROBLEM WILL BE HOW COOL TO MAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. VERY ACTIVE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
THIS IS KICKING OUT SOUTHERN LOW INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN AHEAD OF THIS ON TOP OF ALREADY VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. BLOCKY AND RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE
FROM THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS/NAM ARE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST WITH JET AXIS
OVER CALIFORNIA. THE UKMET IS NEARLY ON. THE NAM WAS DOING BETTER ON
THE JET SEGMENT ROUNDING THE BASE AND COMING UP THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
AT MID LEVELS...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE WOULD SUPPORT THE
UKMET/ECMWF DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS.

MODEL TREND FROM YESTERDAY IS TO HAVE THE INCOMING LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWER. THIS MAKES SENSE DUE TO THE BLOCK IN PLACE
FURTHER EAST. WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...AND TRENDING
TOWARD WHICH IS COOLER...WETTER...AND SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS BY 12Z THURSDAY IS TO HAVE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

TODAY/TONIGHT...BECAUSE OF LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER/NEAR OUR NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PERSIST. ALSO THIS AREA
IS NEAR WESTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE. BECAUSE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...CONVECTION ONGOING...AND NOT WANTING TO GET
TOO FANCY WITH THIS...WILL PUT POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...ALTHOUGH
THE AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY SEE THE MOST COVERAGE. LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZE IN THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN MOVE WEST...AND ORIENTED POPS THAT WAY. NAM
INDICATING A DRY SLOT THAT AM NOT SURE ABOUT. BUT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS NEIGHBORS THINKING...WILL HAVE LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTH.

AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. MAY HAVE
CLOUD COVER HINDER HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG. IF RADAR ESTIMATES ARE CORRECT...THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PORTION OF YUMA AND DUNDY RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS COULD BE HAIL CONTAMINATED. HOWEVER...JUST TO
THE NORTH OF US THEY RECEIVED AN OBSCENE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. ALSO
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE MUCH FASTER TODAY...AND WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON
REPEATED TRAINING. HPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE HEAVIES RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...PLAN ON NOT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CONSIDERING THE ABOVE REASONING AND INPUT FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES. HOWEVER...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO REASSESS THIS. WILL HAVE
HEAVY RAINFALL MENTIONED IN THE ZONES AND HWO.

WITH CLOUD COVER AND UNFAVORABLE WINDS...WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECTS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS...THROUGH THE
DAY. IF 12Z POSITION MENTIONED MENTIONED ABOVE IS REALIZED...THEN
POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE. HOWEVER...DID RAISE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD. THE BEST LIFT DOES LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST HALF AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. BELIEVE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME.
COOLED OFF MAXES MORE...AND COULD NOT COOL OFF AS MUCH AS WANTED TO
KEEP WITHIN COLLABORATION. GUIDANCE HAS GONE COOLER WITH THE 2 METER
TEMPERATURE BEING CONSISTENT AND SIMILAR AND ALSO COOLER FOR THE LAST
TWO DAYS. MAXES MAY NEED TO LOWERED MORE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RAISED POPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOWER MOVEMENT. AGAIN IF SLOWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...THEY
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN MORE. ALSO KEPT MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END...HOPEFULLY...DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE A LOT OF WET GROUND. SO
INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE FOG WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO BE AT LEAST MVFR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ079-080.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COZ090.

&&

JOHNSON/BULLER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
946 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

COZ091-121615-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
946 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 941 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTH OF VONA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH. ANOTHER STORM LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF BURLINGTON WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...IT IS ALSO MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 401 AND 446.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 211.

JRM