Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WGUS73 KGLD 130030
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
627 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

NEC057-130037-
DUNDY NE-
627 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR DUNDY COUNTY...

AT 627 PM MDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE DIMINISHING 
ACROSS DUNDY COUNTY. FURTHERMORE NO REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN 
RECEIVED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LAT...LON 4001 10204 4002 10139 4037 10134 4034 10205

$$

STASSER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST 19Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER
LOW SPINNING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO WITH ANOTHER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE INDICATE DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS BLOCKED BY
PERSISTENT TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO OUR
EAST.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL TODAY WITH REGARD TO SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES AS WELL AS WITH MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS. IN
THE SHORT TERM MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE
FIELDS AS WELL AS WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION. GFS MODEL WAS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH MOVING SYSTEMS
THROUGH WITH THE NAM MODEL A LITTLE FASTER. CONVECTION HAD ALREADY
BEGUN EARLIER TODAY IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME
INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL MENTION AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS MODELS SHOW TROUGHS AS WELL AS GOOD
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL CARRY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW. MODEL QPF GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS THEY MOVE
NORTHWARD. ALSO WITH LOTS OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
THROUGH TOMORROW WILL NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE FOR HEATING.
WILL GO WITH MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S WEST TO MIDDLE 60S EAST. WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW IN THE 70S.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW THE TROUGHS CONTINUING TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEST TO CHANCE POPS EAST AS ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
MOIST WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE
AND WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE
ECMWF MODEL ALONG WITH GFS AND DGEX MODELS ALL HINT AT SOME KIND
OF FRONT OR BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES WITH
THIS SYSTEM. POSITION AND TIMING DISCREPANCIES DO EXIST. DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S INTO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAIN WITHIN STRONGEST STORMS WILL
REDUCE VSBYS TO LESS THAN 2 MILES. WIND GUSTS TO 40KT MAY ALSO
OCCUR NEAR ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ003-004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NEZ081.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ079-080.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COZ090.

&&

LAMMERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1024 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007 /1124 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ENTERING THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS..AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR YUMA COUNTY COLORADO...DUNDY AND
HITCHCOCK COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA... AND CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS
COUNTIES IN KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
946 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

COZ091-121615-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
946 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 941 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTH OF VONA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH. ANOTHER STORM LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF BURLINGTON WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...IT IS ALSO MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 401 AND 446.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 211.

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1212 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

KSZ028-121845-
LOGAN-
112 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF RUSSELL SPRINGS...AND MOVING
NORTH AT 35 MPH. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL.

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1241 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 AM     HAIL             6 E KIRK                39.62N 102.49W
06/12/2007  M0.75 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT FROM COCORAHS. ACOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN - 1.25
            INCHES IN ONE HOUR

&&

SJOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
105 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

KSZ013-121930-
SHERMAN-
105 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 105 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR EDSON...AND MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH. A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNADARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
SHERMAN COUNTY THROUGH 130 PM MDT. WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARRY WILL
BLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10 AND 34.

MENTZER