Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EJECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. DRY LINE/COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED JUST WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED IN THE PRIME
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 18Z FWD SOUNDING REVEALED THE
CAPPING INVERSION /AND LAYER WITHIN/ COOLED SINCE THE 12Z RAOB. LOW
LEVEL HELICITIES INCREASED BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...WITH THE
HODOGRAPH BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC STORMS. HEAVY RAIN
ALREADY IN PROGRESS...AND AS THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CONGEAL OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO KILLEEN LINE FROM 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY...TORNADO WATCHES COVER ALL
BUT OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS WE APPROACH EVENING...A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST ZONES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING INTO
SOUTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CANADIAN/DGEX/ECMWF HAVE COME IN LINE WITH
THE GFS IN REGARDS TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING SYSTEM. WE WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  75  52  75  54 /  60  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              64  78  50  78  53 /  80  20   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             65  74  51  70  47 /  80  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            62  76  50  75  52 /  50  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          62  74  52  74  51 /  60  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            64  75  53  76  53 /  70  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           63  75  52  75  52 /  70  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  77  52  77  54 /  80  30  10   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            65  83  52  79  55 /  80  30   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
151 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
151 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR DISCREET SUPER-CELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN
AND NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EASING EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONGEAL MORE INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE BY MID EVENING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS OVER OKLAHOMA...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
BY MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY LEND
TO STALLING TRENDS TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BETWEEN
2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS 4 INCHES MAY
OCCUR SOUTH OF ATHENS...CORSICANA...WACO...KILLEEN LINE. THUS...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING... HAZARDOUS WEATHER SITUATION AND TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...
NAMELY ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. A FEW STORMS
COULD REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS IMMINENT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PARIS...DALLAS...GATESVILLE
LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY THROUGH TONIGHT.

05/

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
428 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 ESE GRANBURY         32.38N  97.61W
04/24/2007                   JOHNSON            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE EAST OF PECAN PLANTATION

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
433 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CELESTE                 33.29N  96.19W
04/24/2007                   HUNT               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE LIMBS DOWN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
433 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

TXZ095-242200-
LAMAR TX-
433 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES EAST OF BONHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3367 9599 3355 9583 3383 9531 3388 9585

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
435 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

TXZ130-143-242200-
ERATH TX-HAMILTON TX-
435 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN ERATH COUNTY
  NORTH CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY

AT 435 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTH OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HICO.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1100 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3192 9832 3179 9820 3196 9788 3214 9803

13