Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1239 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

.AVIATION...
JUST TIMING MODIFICATIONS WITH DISCREET/ELEVATED TSRA DEVELOPING
OVER MVFR STRATUS DECK...WITH NUMEROUS AREAS OF -RA/-SHRA THRU
20-21Z. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH VCTS WITH WDLY SCT NATURE INITIALLY
WITH SOME IFR CONDS/VSBYS THRU 21Z. AFTRWDS...COULD SEE CIGS OR
SCT VFR CONDS UNTIL DRYLINE/BKN LINE OF MORE SFC-BASED/SVR TSRA
ARRIVING IN 22-02Z TIME FRAME. EVEN AS THEY PASS...LG-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD KEEP SOME -RA/-SHRA/MVFR CONDS ARND THRU 12Z-15Z WED...OR
UNTIL DRYLINE/PACK CD FNT CLEARS OUT LOW LVL MSTR. AN AWW MAY BE
NEED AGAIN SHORTLY FOR DFW/DAL AIRPORTS WITH ELEVATED TSRA AND
CG(S) COMING WITHIN 10 NM OF RUNWAYS. XPCT SEVERAL AMDS NEXT 24
HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007/

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...

UPDATE...
NWS FORT WORTH WILL CONDUCT A LIVE NOAA WEATHER RADIO BROADCAST ON
THE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION AT 1145 AM.

UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW TRANSLATING INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN KS. WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS RESULTED
IN A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. OVERALL LIFT IS ENHANCING...EVIDENT BY LIGHTING RETURNS
BETWEEN MWL AND DFW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BREAK IN CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPING FROM WICHITA FALLS...TO NEAR MINERAL WELLS...AND
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SAN ANGELO. DRY LINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS
TRIGGERED A BROKEN LINE OF ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO SAN
ANGELO. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70F ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE AREA OF BKN/SCT
CLOUD COVER. STRONG WINDS RUN A LARGE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AS
EXPECTED. REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE 40-45KTS AT 850MB...30KTS AT
700MB AND 55-60KTS AT 500MB PUNCHING INTO WESTERN TX. SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...BUT CONVECTIVE MODE IS
STILL UNCERTAIN.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN OVER OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 2 INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST ON WHERE EXACTLY THE BAND OF
HIGHEST RAINFALL WILL SET UP. COLLABORATION STILL ONGOING WITH THE
RFC AND WE WILL RECONSIDER THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH
ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS AND MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS. UPDATES ALREADY AVAILABLE.

PREV DISCUSSION...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007/
TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND CIGS ARE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TAF
PACKAGE. MVFR CIGS PREVAILING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH OVC017 MOST
AREAS. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN
SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE AFTN AT BKN030 BUT MAY SEE SOME SCATTERING LATE IN THE AFTN
AS DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD. STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY. ALL TERMINALS
ARE UNDER A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. NORTH TEXAS IS
STRONGLY CAPPED PER 9Z ACARS SOUNDINGS...BUT WITH EXPECTED HEATING
LATER TODAY AND INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM...CAP WILL WEAKEN AND SHOULD SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. FOR
NOW...WILL TEMPO +TSRA IN THE 23-01Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE METROPLEX
SITES...AS IT APPEARS THAT CAPPING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION UNTIL THEN.
MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP UNDER THE CAP THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW...AS TIMING/LOCATION WILL BE HARD
TO NAIL DOWN. AT WACO...WILL PREVAIL TSRA EARLY EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

91/DUNN

DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER AT 08Z...INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST CAPES...AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE JUST KEPT 20 PERCENT
POPS AREAWIDE FOR THIS MORNING FOR WHATEVER SHOWERS DEVELOP. THE
MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE 00Z RAOB SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.33 INCHES AT KFWD WHICH IS 157 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS THE STORMS
MOVE EAST INTO EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE GENERAL 1
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 2 TO 3 INCH RAIN
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF AN TEMPLE...TO EMORY LINE. WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS THE OTHER SEVERE
ELEMENTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT WE WILL STILL SEE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS KANSAS
INTO MISSOURI. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRIER COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS IMPRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO RE-INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AFTERWARDS...IT LOOKS DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS. #58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  62  75  54  75 /  70  60  10  10  10
WACO, TX              78  65  78  52  78 /  70  80  20   0   0
PARIS, TX             76  64  74  53  74 /  60  80  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            77  63  77  52  76 /  70  50  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          76  62  74  52  75 /  70  60  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            78  63  75  55  76 /  70  70  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           78  63  75  55  74 /  70  70  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         77  64  77  55  76 /  70  80  30  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  64  83  52  79 /  70  80  30   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21/58/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
151 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
151 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR DISCREET SUPER-CELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN
AND NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EASING EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONGEAL MORE INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE BY MID EVENING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS OVER OKLAHOMA...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
BY MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY LEND
TO STALLING TRENDS TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BETWEEN
2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS 4 INCHES MAY
OCCUR SOUTH OF ATHENS...CORSICANA...WACO...KILLEEN LINE. THUS...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING... HAZARDOUS WEATHER SITUATION AND TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...
NAMELY ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. A FEW STORMS
COULD REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS IMMINENT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PARIS...DALLAS...GATESVILLE
LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY THROUGH TONIGHT.

05/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
154 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     HAIL             NEWCASTLE               33.19N  98.74W
04/24/2007  E0.75 INCH       YOUNG              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
213 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 E DENTON              33.21N  97.03W
04/24/2007  E70 MPH          DENTON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
220 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 PM     TORNADO          GODLEY                  32.45N  97.53W
04/24/2007                   JOHNSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR GODLEY

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