Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1219 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
TOWERING CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING QUITE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW RADAR ECHOES ARE ALREADY NOTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. WILL CARRY MENTION OF CB FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AMEND FOR TSRA BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON..VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SCHULTZ
&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007/

UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MORNING SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE DFW AREA
AS INDICATED BY DEWPOINT/THETA-E GRADIENT. DEWS ARE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX AND IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
NORTH. WIND FIELDS REMAIN LIGHT...BUT AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S LATER THIS AFTN...DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS
WELL AND WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS.
HAVE RAISED DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF DFW.

91/DUNN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007/

MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AS WEAK ISENTROPIC FLOW CONTINUES. EXPECT
THESE TO LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS THEY HAVE THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS. WEAK FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 8 KTS AND WILL
BECOME SSE LATER TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR A
CANTON...WACO...TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
FAIRLY WEAK EARLY (LESS THAN 30 KNOTS) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE LOW THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY FORM
NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
WEAK SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. A
FEW STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EARLY EVENING BUT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PATTERN COMMON IN EARLY SUMMER WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER EAST TEXAS AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN BY MID WEEK WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE REGION WIDE FRIDAY AS LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASES SLIGHTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK UPPER
TROUGH.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...EXCEPT ACROSS THE METROPLEX WHERE SOME MIDDLE 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  97  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              71  96  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  94  72  93  72 /  20  30  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            70  95  70  95  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          70  95  68  94  71 /  20  20  10  20  10
DALLAS, TX            76  96  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           72  94  71  94  73 /  20  30  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  94  73  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  95  71  94  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SCHULTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
505 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
505 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING
HOURS. ON FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

13

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