Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
800 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.AVIATION UPDATE...
800 PM CDT
SURFACE FRONT HAS SLOWED FROM NEAR KILLEEN TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. ADDED
VCTS TO KACT TAF THROUGH 03Z BASED ON FRONTAL LOCATION AND RADAR
TRENDS. BELIEVE BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TOWARDS 12Z AS 15-20 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTH OF BOUNDARY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT N-NE TONIGHT BECOMING SE
SATURDAY AS FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD AND MOVES THROUGH ALL TAF SITES.

07/BB

&&

.UPDATE...
752 PM CDT

BRIEF UPDATE INCREASES POPS IN SE ZONES FOR EARLY EVENING. STILL
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY
AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HEALTHY WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION BUOYED BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ABOVE THE COOLER SFC LAYER
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z
AND ASSESS POTENTIAL FURTHER FOR UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING. 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
229 PM CDT

SHORT TERM...
NEAR TERM WILL DEAL WITH OUR FRONT...WHICH HAD MORE BAROCLINICITY
THAT WE ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AND IS NOW ALONG A CANTON...HILLSBORO...
GATESVILLE LINE IN GENERAL. STILL HOT/MOIST/AND UNSTABLE SE OF THE
FRONT...BUT STORMS NEAR CENTERVILLE/PALESTINE AREAS ARE STRUGGLING
TO TO MAINTAIN DUE TO WEAKER WIND SHEAR DOWN THAT WAY. WE WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING AHEAD OF FRONT. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY FROM LAMPASAS...TO
WACO...TO ATHENS AND POINTS SE. NOT VERY ORGANIZED. S/W KICKING
OF ISOLATED STORMS OVER W TX WILL MOVE NE TOWARD WRN OK OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY LEND TO WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY OVER FAR NW COUNTIES SAT A.M.

COOLER/DRIER AIR OVER NRN SECTIONS OF N TX TO BE SHORT-LIVED...AS
BOUNDARY RETREATS SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT AND BACK INTO OK/AR
BY SAT NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD DURING PRIME HEATING...SCT
STORMS ONCE AGAIN MAY OCCUR BY AFTN ALONG/N OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH
MORE CAPPED/MIXED ENVIRONMENT FURTHER S. TEMPS WILL RESPOND AS
WELL BACK TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...BACK INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S BY
SUN WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE RE-AMPLIFYING
OVER MOST OF N TX. MAY SEE MORE AIRMASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
D/FW AND POINTS NE ON SUNDAY IN DEEPER...MOIST UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. OTHERWISE...THE MUGGIES WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

LONG TERM...
ONLY TWEAKED A FEW THINGS AND STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE...AS PATTERN
WILL BE MAINLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH VERY BENIGN FEATURES TO DRIVE
THINGS...THUS HELD TO LOW POP MENTION. GENERALLY...BERMUDA RIDGE
STAYS AMPLIFIED OVER N TX WITH HOT/MUGGY WX THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR
WED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS/WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AS MID LVL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR JUST TO OUR
NORTH IN ACTIVE POLAR STREAM. BOTH WED AND THURS NIGHTS COULD SEE
MCS FORM UP IN KS/NRN OK AREAS...THEN WEAKEN AND CROSS THE RED RIVER
EACH OF THE FOLLOWING MORNINGS. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE DRIVEN FEATURES.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  90  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  20  10
WACO, TX              73  89  72  93  72 /  30  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             64  88  71  90  72 /  20  30  20  30  10
DENTON, TX            66  88  70  94  72 /  20  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          66  87  69  93  69 /  20  30  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            68  90  73  94  75 /  20  30  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           70  89  72  92  72 /  20  30  20  30  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  90  73  93  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  90  73  93  71 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/25/92/77

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

TXZ148-090000-
ANDERSON TX-
625 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY

AT 625 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PALESTINE THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PALESTINE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3169 9548 3184 9548 3180 9591 3155 9572

07/BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

TXZ122-090015-
VAN ZANDT TX-
645 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 645 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINEOLA...MOVING WEST AT 5
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CANTON AND VAN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3261 9604 3238 9603 3236 9550 3260 9560

07/BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

TXZ122-090030-
VAN ZANDT TX-
707 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 707 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CANTON...THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CANTON AND VAN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3255 9596 3238 9598 3236 9556 3259 9556

07/BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
740 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

TXZ122-135-090115-
VAN ZANDT TX-HENDERSON TX-
740 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 740 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF ATHENS...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 5 MPH.

CITIES NEAR THIS STORM INCLUDE BROWNSBORO AND EDOM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
STAY TUNED TO FUTURE WEATHER UPDATES.

LAT...LON 3225 9562 3244 9556 3247 9587 3228 9590

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
811 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

TXZ135-090145-
HENDERSON TX-
811 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY

AT 811 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF ATHENS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GUN BARREL CITY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORM INCLUDE ATHENS...CANEY CITY...
ENCHANTED OAKS...EUSTACE AND GUN BARREL CITY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR HENDERSON COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3215 9569 3233 9566 3236 9619 3220 9616

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