Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
730 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

.AVIATION...
730 PM CDT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AFW. DFW/DAL LIKELY TO ESCAPE
BULK OF ACTIVITY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN VCTS. NO AWW FOR DFW ATTM AS
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE INFREQUENT WITHIN 10NM OF TERMINAL
COMPLEX. HOWEVER...AWW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE THREAT OF THUNDER COMES
TO AN END.

LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM SONORA TO
BROWNWOOD...WHERE SUNSHINE HAS HELPED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY TO BE
REALIZED. ALTHOUGH MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS IS NORTHEAST...
EXPECT PROPAGATION OF LINE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS LLJ. LINE WILL BECOME DISTINCTLY
SEPARATED FROM NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION. STORMS MAY REMAIN ROOTED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL AFTER DARK...FEEDING OFF OF CONSIDERABLE
PWATS IN LARGELY UNTAPPED AIR. EXPECT WACO TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE REFRAINED FROM TS MENTION IN KACT TAF.
NONETHELESS...WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR ANY LATE ARRIVALS INTO ACT/GRK.

SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWING
46KTS AT 2KFT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR...EXPECT SOME LLWS
TO CONTINUE WITH LLJ UNTIL DRYLINE PASSAGE 14-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY AS DRYLINE SCOURS BL DRY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL INCREASE DEPTH OF SPEED
SHEAR. BELIEVE MOS WINDS ARE TOO LOW FOR WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CROSSWINDS...25016G28KT BEYOND 14Z. WINDS WILL VEER LATE
IN THE DAY...REDUCING CROSSWINDS ON RWYS 31L/R. FOR 06Z PACKAGE...
WILL ADD A MID-AFTERNOON FM GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR VEERING AND REDUCED
CROSSWIND COMPONENT. 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
302 PM CDT

...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EJECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. DRY LINE/COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED JUST WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED IN THE PRIME
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 18Z FWD SOUNDING REVEALED THE
CAPPING INVERSION /AND LAYER WITHIN/ COOLED SINCE THE 12Z RAOB. LOW
LEVEL HELICITIES INCREASED BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...WITH THE
HODOGRAPH BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC STORMS. HEAVY RAIN
ALREADY IN PROGRESS...AND AS THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CONGEAL OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO KILLEEN LINE FROM 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY...TORNADO WATCHES COVER ALL
BUT OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS WE APPROACH EVENING...A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST ZONES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING INTO
SOUTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CANADIAN/DGEX/ECMWF HAVE COME IN LINE WITH
THE GFS IN REGARDS TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING SYSTEM. WE WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  75  52  75  54 /  60  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              64  78  50  78  53 /  80  20   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             65  74  51  70  47 /  80  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            62  76  50  75  52 /  50  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          62  74  52  74  51 /  60  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            64  75  53  76  53 /  70  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           63  75  52  75  52 /  70  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  77  52  77  54 /  80  30  10   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            65  83  52  79  55 /  80  30   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

26/25/21/82
07/06/09/05/92/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
151 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
151 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR DISCREET SUPER-CELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN
AND NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EASING EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONGEAL MORE INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE BY MID EVENING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS OVER OKLAHOMA...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
BY MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY LEND
TO STALLING TRENDS TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BETWEEN
2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS 4 INCHES MAY
OCCUR SOUTH OF ATHENS...CORSICANA...WACO...KILLEEN LINE. THUS...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING... HAZARDOUS WEATHER SITUATION AND TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...
NAMELY ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. A FEW STORMS
COULD REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS IMMINENT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PARIS...DALLAS...GATESVILLE
LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY THROUGH TONIGHT.

05/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
635 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE WAEATHERFORD       32.74N  97.75W
04/24/2007                   PARKER             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA RELAYED DAMAGE TO AN AWNING AT A GAS STATION NEAR
            TX HWY 5 & I-20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             WEATHERFORD             32.76N  97.77W
04/24/2007  E0.88 INCH       PARKER             TX   PUBLIC

            MEDIA RELAYED REPORT OF NICKEL HAIL WEST SIDE OF
            WEATHERFORD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

TXZ130-250045-
ERATH TX-
709 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN ERATH COUNTY

AT 709 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF RANGER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
THE BULK OF THIS STORM WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO PALO PINTO
COUNTY...BUT RESIDENTS OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ERATH COUNTY SHOULD
TAKE SHELTER.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1100 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3251 9809 3249 9808 3246 9808 3245 9806
      3244 9843 3243 9844 3243 9847 3250 9847

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
724 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     HAIL             GORDON                  32.55N  98.37W
04/24/2007  E1.75 INCH       PALO PINTO         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
735 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DALLAS                  32.79N  96.77W
04/24/2007                   DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS BROKEN. ESTIMATED WINDS 65-70MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
740 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLOWER MOUND            33.03N  97.09W
04/24/2007                   DENTON             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            IN WESTERN PART OF FLOWER MOUND...NUMEROUS TREES
            DOWN...ROOF DAMAGE TO HOUSE