Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
756 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

.UPDATE...
THE WCN HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
FROM TORNADO WATCH 174. HOWEVER...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TOR BOX
174...THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 03Z /10PM/...TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONGOING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...WE ANTICIPATE THAT ALL OF TOR
BOX 174 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z...AND THE OTHER WATCH BOXES
/176 AND 179/ ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. SEE UPDATED WCN FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

SCHULTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
730 PM CDT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AFW. DFW/DAL LIKELY TO ESCAPE
BULK OF ACTIVITY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN VCTS. NO AWW FOR DFW ATTM AS
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE INFREQUENT WITHIN 10NM OF TERMINAL
COMPLEX. HOWEVER...AWW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE THREAT OF THUNDER COMES
TO AN END.

LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM SONORA TO
BROWNWOOD...WHERE SUNSHINE HAS HELPED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY TO BE
REALIZED. ALTHOUGH MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS IS NORTHEAST...
EXPECT PROPAGATION OF LINE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS LLJ. LINE WILL BECOME DISTINCTLY
SEPARATED FROM NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION. STORMS MAY REMAIN ROOTED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL AFTER DARK...FEEDING OFF OF CONSIDERABLE
PWATS IN LARGELY UNTAPPED AIR. EXPECT WACO TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE REFRAINED FROM TS MENTION IN KACT TAF.
NONETHELESS...WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR ANY LATE ARRIVALS INTO ACT/GRK.

SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWING
46KTS AT 2KFT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR...EXPECT SOME LLWS
TO CONTINUE WITH LLJ UNTIL DRYLINE PASSAGE 14-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY AS DRYLINE SCOURS BL DRY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL INCREASE DEPTH OF SPEED
SHEAR. BELIEVE MOS WINDS ARE TOO LOW FOR WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CROSSWINDS...25016G28KT BEYOND 14Z. WINDS WILL VEER LATE
IN THE DAY...REDUCING CROSSWINDS ON RWYS 31L/R. FOR 06Z PACKAGE...
WILL ADD A MID-AFTERNOON FM GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR VEERING AND REDUCED
CROSSWIND COMPONENT. 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
302 PM CDT

...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EJECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. DRY LINE/COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED JUST WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED IN THE PRIME
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 18Z FWD SOUNDING REVEALED THE
CAPPING INVERSION /AND LAYER WITHIN/ COOLED SINCE THE 12Z RAOB. LOW
LEVEL HELICITIES INCREASED BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...WITH THE
HODOGRAPH BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC STORMS. HEAVY RAIN
ALREADY IN PROGRESS...AND AS THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CONGEAL OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO KILLEEN LINE FROM 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY...TORNADO WATCHES COVER ALL
BUT OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS WE APPROACH EVENING...A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST ZONES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING INTO
SOUTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CANADIAN/DGEX/ECMWF HAVE COME IN LINE WITH
THE GFS IN REGARDS TO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING SYSTEM. WE WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  75  52  75  54 /  60  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              64  78  50  78  53 /  80  20   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             65  74  51  70  47 /  80  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            62  76  50  75  52 /  50  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          62  74  52  74  51 /  60  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            64  75  53  76  53 /  70  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           63  75  52  75  52 /  70  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  77  52  77  54 /  80  30  10   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            65  83  52  79  55 /  80  30   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

26/25/21/82
07/06/09/05/92/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
151 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
151 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR DISCREET SUPER-CELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN
AND NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EASING EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONGEAL MORE INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE BY MID EVENING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS OVER OKLAHOMA...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
BY MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY LEND
TO STALLING TRENDS TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BETWEEN
2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS 4 INCHES MAY
OCCUR SOUTH OF ATHENS...CORSICANA...WACO...KILLEEN LINE. THUS...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING... HAZARDOUS WEATHER SITUATION AND TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...
NAMELY ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. A FEW STORMS
COULD REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS IMMINENT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PARIS...DALLAS...GATESVILLE
LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY THROUGH TONIGHT.

05/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
949 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

TXZ146-250315-
NAVARRO TX-
949 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NAVARRO COUNTY

AT 949 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTH OF
WAXAHACHIE TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILLSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ANGUS...BARRY...BLOOMING
GROVE...CORSICANA...DAWSON AND NAVARRO.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1100 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3234 9639 3209 9689 3183 9672 3180 9650
      3186 9639 3224 9622

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S BLUE RIDGE          33.24N  96.40W
04/24/2007  M63 MPH          COLLIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1011 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BLUE RIDGE              33.30N  96.40W
04/24/2007                   COLLIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING IN BLUE RIDGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1019 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLASH FLOOD      15 S DECATUR            33.02N  97.59W
04/24/2007                   WISE               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOW WATER CROSSING COVERED ALONG CR 3585

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1032 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

TXZ144-250400-
BOSQUE TX-
1032 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL BOSQUE COUNTY

AT 1032 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLIFTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MERIDIAN AND MERIDIAN STATE
PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1100 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3186 9784 3177 9778 3189 9738 3206 9749
      3193 9773

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1033 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND GST     TERRELL                 32.73N  96.29W
04/24/2007  E60 MPH          KAUFMAN            TX   AMATEUR RADIO