Flash Flood Warning 353, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING FROM COMANCHE...TO CLEBURNE AND
DFW...TO GAINESVILLE AND SULPHUR SPRINGS. STORMS THUS FAR HAVE
PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH.

UPPER LOW OVER SW OKLAHOMA STARTING TO SWING MORE ESE. THIS
FEATURE WILL STEADILY ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL
CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHICH SHOULD SEE
BEST FORCING FROM UPPER SYSTEM. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ALL
BUT NORTHWEST ZONES GIVEN MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
WITH PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP POPS GOING LATER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION... MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES...ON MONDAY.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN MCS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. MCS SHOULD MOVE SE IN NWLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF SOUTHWEST
U.S. UPPER RIDGE. NAM HOLDS BULK OF PRECIP IN OKLAHOMA...WHILE GFS
PUSHES MCS DOWN INTO WESTERN NORTH TX. WILL LEAN A BIT TOWARD GFS
AND INCLUDE CHANCE POPS INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES TO NEAR THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY
SAGS INTO AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHERN EDGE OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRUSHING AREA WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER MCS INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SUCH FEATURES IS OBVIOUSLY LOW THIS FAR OUT...
PERSISTENCE OF OVERALL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TREND OF MEX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...SLOW
GRADUAL INCREASE OF TEMPS OVER NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO SPREAD EAST TOWARDS TEXAS.
..06..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  93  76 /  20  20  10  30  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  92  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             71  93  72  92  73 /  30  30  30  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  94  75  93  74 /  20  20  30  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  93  74  92  74 /  20  20  30  30  10
DALLAS, TX            76  93  75  92  76 /  20  20  10  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  93  75  92  74 /  30  20  10  30  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  92  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  74  92  74 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

91/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
358 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH. ALSO...STORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
522 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E GLEN ROSE           32.24N  97.69W
07/08/2007                   SOMERVELL          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS FARM-TO-MARKET AND COUNTY ROADS UNDERWATER
	    ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
	    COUNTY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
526 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FLASH FLOOD      15 S STEPHENVILLE       32.00N  98.22W
07/08/2007                   ERATH              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING OF ROADS NEAR SOUTHERN ERATH COUNTY BORDER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
535 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW HICO               31.92N  98.10W
07/08/2007                   HAMILTON           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 219 NEAR CARLTON

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