Flash Flood Warning 349, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING FROM COMANCHE...TO CLEBURNE AND
DFW...TO GAINESVILLE AND SULPHUR SPRINGS. STORMS THUS FAR HAVE
PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH.

UPPER LOW OVER SW OKLAHOMA STARTING TO SWING MORE ESE. THIS
FEATURE WILL STEADILY ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL
CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHICH SHOULD SEE
BEST FORCING FROM UPPER SYSTEM. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ALL
BUT NORTHWEST ZONES GIVEN MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
WITH PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP POPS GOING LATER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION... MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES...ON MONDAY.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN MCS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. MCS SHOULD MOVE SE IN NWLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF SOUTHWEST
U.S. UPPER RIDGE. NAM HOLDS BULK OF PRECIP IN OKLAHOMA...WHILE GFS
PUSHES MCS DOWN INTO WESTERN NORTH TX. WILL LEAN A BIT TOWARD GFS
AND INCLUDE CHANCE POPS INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES TO NEAR THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY
SAGS INTO AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHERN EDGE OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRUSHING AREA WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
MAINLY NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER MCS INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SUCH FEATURES IS OBVIOUSLY LOW THIS FAR OUT...
PERSISTENCE OF OVERALL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TREND OF MEX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...SLOW
GRADUAL INCREASE OF TEMPS OVER NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO SPREAD EAST TOWARDS TEXAS.
..06..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  93  76 /  20  20  10  30  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  92  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             71  93  72  92  73 /  30  30  30  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  94  75  93  74 /  20  20  30  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  93  74  92  74 /  20  20  30  30  10
DALLAS, TX            76  93  75  92  76 /  20  20  10  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  93  75  92  74 /  30  20  10  30  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  92  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  74  92  74 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

91/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
749 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
749 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
VERY LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
144 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

TXZ118-081915-
TARRANT TX-
144 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 144 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF EVERMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3257 9747 3255 9713 3276 9705 3277 9742

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
148 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

TXZ107-081915-
HOPKINS TX-
148 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL HOPKINS COUNTY

AT 148 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3300 9574 3301 9538 3325 9536 3322 9572

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
251 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

TXZ095-082015-
LAMAR TX-
251 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF PARIS...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLOSSOM...DEPORT AND PARIS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3384 9555 3350 9557 3339 9531 3386 9532

DUNN