Flash Flood Warning 284, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAF PERIOD/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AND WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT TSRA AT METROPLEX SITES BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z WITH
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN PRECIP DURING
THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUES.

FOR ACT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL...AND WILL BE MOVING NORTH
NORTHEAST. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR ACT IS SIMILAR TO METROPLEX SITES...WITH
MORE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007/

DISCUSSION...
A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
A TUTT...TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT DOES...THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIKEWISE SINK SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND...
HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. THE DAY SHIFT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXTEND
THE WATCH BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW HAVE JUST LEFT THE
EXPIRATION TIME OF 23Z. HOWEVER...HAVE PLACED THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO CLIMB CLOSER TO NORMAL.
#58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  73  88  71  87 /  70  50  60  40  60
WACO, TX              88  73  86  72  87 /  70  50  70  60  70
PARIS, TX             87  72  87  71  86 /  70  60  70  30  60
DENTON, TX            86  71  87  70  87 /  70  50  60  40  60
MCKINNEY, TX          85  69  88  71  87 /  70  50  60  40  60
DALLAS, TX            88  73  88  72  87 /  70  50  60  40  60
TERRELL, TX           86  72  87  73  87 /  70  60  70  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         86  72  86  71  87 /  70  60  70  50  60
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  86  71  85 /  70  50  70  60  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

SCHULTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
410 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-030915-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
410 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WINDS TO
40 MPH...AND FLASH FLOODING WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHERMORE...A FUNNEL
CLOUD OR BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

SCHULTZ