Flash Flood Warning 238, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
940 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SORRY FOR THE DELAY...WE HAD A BUG IN THE ZONES...AND JUST KNOW
FOUND IT. THE 940 FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

850 PM PUBLIC UPDATE...
.WE HAVE ISSUED NEW ZONE FORECAST AND GRIDS...COOLING OFF LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLUNGING SQUALL LINE.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) MOVING OUT
OF THE PANHANDLE...COULD LATCH ON TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LEFT
BEHIND BY OUR NORTH TEXAS SQUALL LINE...AND CAUSE MORE WATER
PROBLEMS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THAT REMAINS AS A
POSSIBILITY...NOT A PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY...OUR
EXPECTATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE PANHANDLE MCS WILL PASS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...ASSUMING THAT THE MCS HOLDS
TOGETHER.  #26

&&

.AVIATION...
532 PM
THE TSTM LINE IS MOVING THROUGH THE METROPLEX NOW. IT SEEMS TO BE
SLOWING DOWN A BIT NOW THAT IT HAS SLID DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW AND IS NOW MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW. COLD POOL IS A BIT STRONGER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS
WITH SOME DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...THIS MAY STABILIZE THE AIR BEHIND
IT GIVING SOME RESPITE FROM THE STORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST AREAS. AS
FAR AS TAFS GO...WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE TAFS THROUGH 02Z...THEN
TONE THE RAIN DOWN THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE
ANOTHER RETURN.  84

&&

.DISCUSSION...
258 PM
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE ANY
COUNTIES FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND OUR WESTERN
CWA WILL ONLY MEANDER A LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN CANADA
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS...HOWEVER THE SHEAR AXIS OVER
OUR WESTERN CWA WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND. COME NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS WEST TO EAST AND SLIDES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES...EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.

DUE TO OUR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS AND EASTERN SIDE LIFT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CWA. SINCE THIS IS A WARM CORE SYSTEM...THE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
NUMEROUS AND SCATTERED DURING THE DAYTIME AND MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE LOWS CENTER AT NIGHTTIME WHICH IS OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA.  THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW...BUT A BRIEF SMALL FUNNEL
OR AN F0 VORTEX COULD OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY.

WE/VE KEPT POPS HIGH FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AND ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS
TO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH ISN/T LEAVING SOON.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FORECASTING HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE DIFFICULT. DECIDE TO PULL HIGH BACK SLIGHTLY
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GOVERNED BY
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  84  72  87  73 /  70  70  60  50  30
WACO, TX              75  86  73  87  73 /  60  60  50  50  20
PARIS, TX             72  83  71  85  71 /  70  70  50  40  30
DENTON, TX            73  83  70  86  71 /  80  70  60  50  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  84  71  86  71 /  70  70  60  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  84  73  87  73 /  70  70  60  50  30
TERRELL, TX           74  85  72  86  73 /  60  60  50  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  86  72  88  73 /  50  60  50  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            75  87  72  87  72 /  50  60  40  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

79/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
330 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER TONIGHT. ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

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