Flash Flood Warning 198, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. AM BECOMING CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND
FEATURES HAVE BECOME ALIGNED IN SUCH A WAY THAT TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE THE AFFECTED AREA SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO JUST 2 OR 3 COUNTIES...BUT HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE DENTON AND MCKINNEY AREA NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIE OFF BY 9 OR 10 PM WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...AND ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
SLIGHTLY AND THE BEST POPS TOMORROW WILL BE EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AGAIN...SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. THE MAV GUIDANCE
APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS SATURDAY. BELIEVE THAT CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IS CONTAMINATING THE GFS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS NO SUCH
BLOB OF RAIN COMES INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN ANY OF THE OTHER
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL GO MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN MAV MOS ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL CARRY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
STORMS.

MOISTURE WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GETS DRAWN INTO THE
PERSISTENT UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
INCREASE TO 2-2.4 INCHES AND SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTH TEXAS. HAVE PLACED BEST
POPS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY AS THIS MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. OBVIOUSLY FLOODING
WOULD BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SET UP...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. MOISTURE BEGINS TO WANE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
HAVE SHOWED A DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN BY THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MEX MOS WERE MADE ACCORDINGLY.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  89  70  89  72 /  40  30  20  20  20
WACO, TX              71  87  68  86  70 /  30  30  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             69  86  67  87  70 /  30  50  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            70  88  69  88  69 /  50  30  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          70  88  68  88  69 /  40  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  88  71  88  71 /  30  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           71  87  68  88  70 /  30  40  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         71  87  68  87  70 /  30  30  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  68  86  70 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
445 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-231100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
445 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS. WITH A SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED
GROUND...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLOODING REPORTS.

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