Flash Flood Warning 197, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK LLJ HELPING TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF
THE CWA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE U.S. REMAINS UNDER A BROAD RIDGE...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHT FIELDS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER-MAKER THIS WEEK AS
IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY...KEEPING WEAK LIFT OVER NORTH TEXAS.
EXPECT THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...
WITH A WEAK LLJ KEEPING SHOWERS GOING. DECENT CAPE AND NO CIN WILL
FOSTER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. SHEAR
WILL BE WEAK...AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAIN. LACK OF A DECENT FOCUSING MECHANISM MAKES
IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AREAS WHICH HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN...
THEREFORE HAVE RELUCTANTLY PUT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KTS AS
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GULF. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEREFORE BE IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES DURING THESE PERIODS. ON WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DEPICT THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA FLATTENS OUT THE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WOULD PULL THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE BREAK POINT BETWEEN THE HAWAIIAN HIGH TO THE WEST AND
THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE
INCLUSION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY BUT WITH A
SLIGHT WARM BIAS. DO NOT EXPECT RAIN TO BE CONTINUOUS...AND JUST
A LITTLE SUN IN LATE JUNE CAN INCREASE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BY
SEVERAL DEGREES.  /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  89  73  91  71  90 /  40  20  20  10  10
WACO, TX              87  71  89  69  89 /  40  20  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             87  69  87  68  88 /  40  20  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            87  70  89  69  89 /  40  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          87  70  88  68  88 /  40  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            89  73  90  72  89 /  40  20  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           87  72  88  69  88 /  40  20  30  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         88  71  87  70  88 /  40  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  69  87 /  40  20  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
445 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-231100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
445 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS. WITH A SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED
GROUND...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLOODING REPORTS.

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