Flash Flood Warning 131, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
651 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

.12Z AVIATION UPDATE...ANOTHER WET DAY IN STORE FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS AIRPORTS. EXTENSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM NEAR SAN ANTONIO NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA...SO EXPECT ON
AND OFF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL PREVAIL MVFR CONDS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPO SHRA/-TSRA IN THE MORNING. EXACT TIMING
OF ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT WILL KEEP
PRECIP IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

91/DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007/

A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX
OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MOVING NORTH... WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS MOVING EASTWARD. WE WILL SEE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN. THUS WE WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS. A COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME
OF 4 PM TODAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH
THE RAIN CHANCES DECREASING AND MORE INSOLATION...WE WILL
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND. #58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  67  81  68  83 /  80  40  50  50  20
WACO, TX              80  69  82  68  82 /  80  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             76  66  79  65  82 /  80  50  60  50  40
DENTON, TX            79  67  81  67  83 /  80  40  50  50  20
MCKINNEY, TX          78  65  80  66  82 /  80  40  50  50  30
DALLAS, TX            79  68  81  68  83 /  80  40  50  50  30
TERRELL, TX           78  66  80  67  83 /  80  40  60  40  30
CORSICANA, TX         79  66  81  67  83 /  80  40  60  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            79  68  81  67  82 /  80  40  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-131>135-142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

91/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-281100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FLASH FLOODING...AS GROUNDS ARE WET IN MANY AREAS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF A
GAINESVILLE TO FORT WORTH TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DUNN