Flash Flood Warning 114, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL BE A TEMPORARY END OF THE
PRECIPITATION LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE
REGION. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF NORTH TEXAS TOWARD MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND...
WACO...TO HEARNE LINE...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES. WILL KEEP A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DUE TO THE
EXPECTED RAIN AND CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE STATE. WEAK
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL WARRANT CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP 20
TO 30 PERCENT POPS REGION WIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  79  63  79  63 /  20  30  30  30  20
WACO, TX              66  77  65  81  64 /  40  40  30  30  30
PARIS, TX             65  79  64  82  63 /  20  30  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            64  79  63  77  64 /  20  30  30  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          62  77  63  77  63 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            67  79  65  79  63 /  20  30  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           65  78  64  78  63 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         65  78  64  82  64 /  20  30  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            64  75  64  78  65 /  40  40  30  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ129-141>143-156>161-174-175.

&&

13/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
248 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
248 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM EASTLAND...TO
WACO...TO CENTERVILLE...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH ENERGY FROM A WEAK AND
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
FLASH FLOODING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING OVER
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID FLOODED ROADWAYS BY
MONITORING WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS. TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
333 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

TXZ146-252100-
NAVARRO TX-
333 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN NAVARRO COUNTY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN NAVARRO COUNTY FROM THE PURDON AND DAWSON AREA NORTH TO
FROST AND BLOOMING GROVE. IN ADDITION...FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED WITH THE STORM NEAR PURDON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...AND WITH WEAK WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.  THESE TYPES OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS RARELY REACH THE GROUND AND BECOME TORNADOES...BUT IF A
FUNNEL IS SPOTTED IN YOUR AREA BE PREPARED TO MOVE INDOORS.

THESE STORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR.  HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH
AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

LAT...LON 3184 9660 3194 9643 3226 9664 3213 9686

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
507 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KILLEEN                 31.10N  97.72W
05/25/2007                   BELL               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LATEST DOWNPOUR CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUED FLASH
            FLOODING. LOW WATER CROSSINGS STILL UNDER WATER.

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