Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

September 30, 2007Dakota County, Nebraska

NWS Sioux Falls, SD issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 30, 2007, 4:29 PM CDT for Dakota County, Nebraska. It was in force for 31 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Sep 30, 2007, 4:29 PM CDT (21:29 UTC)
Expired: Sep 30, 2007, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Dakota County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Sep 30, 4:30 PM CDT	HAIL 1	9 Sw Hubbard, NE

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 1 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 30, 1:02 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1296 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 450 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 472 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFSD 302129
SVRFSD
NEC043-302200-
/O.NEW.KFSD.SV.W.0270.070930T2129Z-070930T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
429 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  DAKOTA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUBBARD...OR ABOUT 19 MILES
  SOUTH OF PONCA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOMER AROUND 440 PM CDT...
  HOMER AROUND 445 PM CDT...
  HUBBARD AROUND 450 PM CDT...
  JACKSON AROUND 500 PM CDT...

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4227 9647 4227 9672 4227 9673 4246 9670
      4248 9666 4250 9652 4249 9648 4250 9647
      4245 9642 4230 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 196DEG 16KT 4230 9666

$$

CJ

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 302146
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
446 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

NEC043-302200-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0270.000000T0000Z-070930T2200Z/
DAKOTA NE-
446 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR DAKOTA COUNTY...

AT 446 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4
MILES WEST OF HUBBARD TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOMER...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTH OF PONCA TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF SIOUX
CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
   JACKSON AROUND 455 PM CDT...

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4227 9647 4227 9672 4227 9673 4246 9670
      4248 9666 4250 9652 4249 9648 4250 9647
      4245 9642 4230 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 196DEG 17KT 4240 9667 4236 9641

$$

CJ

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 302155
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
455 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

NEC043-302205-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0270.000000T0000Z-070930T2200Z/
DAKOTA NE-
455 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DAKOTA COUNTY EXPIRES AT 500
PM CDT...

THE STORM IS NO LONGER SEVERE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4227 9647 4227 9672 4227 9673 4246 9670
      4248 9666 4250 9652 4249 9648 4250 9647
      4245 9642 4230 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 196DEG 17KT 4244 9665 4240 9639

$$

CJ

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 30, 2:25 PM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 2:25 PM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
225 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WILL BE
WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...STORMS
REMAINING ELEVATED AND MULTICELLULAR AND LOW CENTROID...NOT MUCH OF
A CONCERN. HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE INTO NW
IA WHERE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS QUICKLY DESTABILIZING THE BNDRY
LAYER. IF STRATO CU FILLS IN...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERE
STORMS...BUT IF INDIVIDUAL CELLS CAN POP FREE OF STRATUS...THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS WEATHER QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST THIS
EVENING TAKING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. CLEAR SKIES
OVER WRN SD UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A NICE DAY TOMORROW WITH
CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH WILL
BECOME A BIT BREEZY IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES.

STILL EXPECTING THE NEXT STRONG UPPER WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CRASHING ON TO THE NW PAC COAST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA ON TUE.
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES N AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MON NIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL SHEAR. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA A GOOD BET FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFT...THEN RAPIDLY CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING.

IN THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PINNING DOWN TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEMS...AS UPPER WAVE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
FROM ZONAL FLOW MID WEEK TO ZONAL FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH UPPER TROF DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. MAINLY LOOKS
DRY WED THRU SAT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SRN STREAM S/WV AT
SOME POINT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. GFS HAS ACCELERATED EWRD
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT THIS COMING WEEKEND BY
ABOUT A FULL DAY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL A BIT SLOWER...THEREFORE
RELUCTANT TO MAKE LARGE CHANGES SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEPT EXTENDED FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AT FSD AND SUX BUT ENDING BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AT SUX AND FSD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BUT THEN CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING
WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES FOR MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

LIEBL

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 30, 9:45 AM CDT, 6 hours 44 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
945 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-011200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
945 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.	ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 30, 3:06 PM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
306 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             MADISON                 44.01N 97.11W
09/30/2007  E0.75 INCH       LAKE               SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BT

Local storm report, Sep 30, 3:34 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
334 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     HAIL             9 N COLMAN              44.12N 96.82W
09/30/2007  E0.75 INCH       MOODY              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BT

Local storm report, Sep 30, 3:38 PM CDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
338 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             MECKLING                42.84N 97.07W
09/30/2007  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS

&&

LIEBL

Local storm report, Sep 30, 4:07 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
407 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             10 N FLANDREAU          44.19N 96.60W
09/30/2007  E0.88 INCH       MOODY              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT COVERING THE GROUND ON
            HIGHWAY 13 AT BROOKINGS MOODY COUNTY LINE

0353 PM     HAIL             11 N FLANDREAU          44.21N 96.60W
09/30/2007  E0.88 INCH       BROOKINGS          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ALONG
            HIGHWAY 13

0340 PM     HAIL             5 N MECKLING            42.91N 97.07W
09/30/2007  E0.75 INCH       CLAY               SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0350 PM     HAIL             2 NW ALCESTER           43.04N 96.66W
09/30/2007  E1.00 INCH       UNION              SD   PUBLIC

&&

BT

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.