Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 202258
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
357 PM MST FRI JUL 20 2007

AZC007-202307-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070720T2300Z/
GILA AZ-
357 PM MST FRI JUL 20 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GILA COUNTY EXPIRES AT
400 PM MST...

THE STORM PROMPTING THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MST
FRIDAY EVENING FOR GILA COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3374 11072 3381 11081 3372 11095 3365 11091
      3369 11084 3366 11078

$$

DJO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST FRI JUL 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS ACTIVE TODAY FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. LOWER COLORADO RIVER CONTINUES TO SURGE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE STATE. MODELS PROG ANOTHER MCS OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT...OUTFLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH MONSOON BOUNDARY
EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND WEST IN THE COMING DAYS. IN ADDITION TO ALL
OF THIS...A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE
WEST AND SHEAR APART THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL FORCING TO THE CONVECTIVE MIX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL
THINGS SAID...SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 930 AM MST...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN
GREAT PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALLOWING A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AZ. UNDER THIS
PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVER SOUTHERN AZ AS WELL AS NEW
MEXICO SENT MOIST OUTFLOWS NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN AZ. THE
COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN AZ DEVELOPED A DUST STORM...THE REMNANTS OF
WHICH HAVE BROUGHT A LARGE AREA OF 3 TO 6 MILE SURFACE VISIBILITY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP
FROM 0.71 INCHES YESTERDAY TO 0.84 INCHES TODAY...MUCH OF THIS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS UP 5 TO 20 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE EXPECTING A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
MOGOLLON RIM...COCONINO PLATEAU...AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING SOMEWHAT
STATIONARY...WILL EXPECT THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO CONTINUE OR
INCREASE...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ALONG
WITH THE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES (TO NEAR NORMAL) IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KGCN TO
KSJN THROUGH 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
NORTH OF THIS LINE. STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO 45 KTS. MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 04Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW BY 17Z-19Z OVER SIMILAR
GEOGRAPHIC LOCATIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST FRI JUL 20 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-210700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
940 AM MST FRI JUL 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AREAS FROM THE WINDOW ROCK AREA TO THE GRAND CANYON AND SOUTHWARD
CAN EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CHANCES FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN THE THREAT OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL OVER 3/4 INCH DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.