Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 202033
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
132 PM MST FRI JUL 20 2007

AZC007-202100-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070720T2100Z/
GILA AZ-
132 PM MST FRI JUL 20 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM MST
FOR CENTRAL GILA COUNTY...

AT 133 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...BUT IS STILL PRODUCING SEVERE 
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GILA COUNTY...OR ABOUT 26 
MILES NORTHEAST OF ROOSEVELT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ABOUT 5 MILES EAST OF ROUTE 299 (8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YOUNG) THROUGH 
150 PM MST.

LAT...LON 3379 11071 3385 11087 3385 11089 3388 11095
      3410 11081 3408 11075 3401 11075 3400 11074
      3400 11063

$$

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 202044
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
143 PM MST FRI JUL 20 2007

AZC007-202053-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070720T2100Z/
GILA AZ-
143 PM MST FRI JUL 20 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YOUNG...ABOUT 5 
MILES EAST OF ROUTE 299. THIS STORM IS STILL PRODUCING SMALL HAIL 
AND HEAVY RAIN...BUT IS NO LONGER SEVERE.

LAT...LON 3379 11071 3385 11087 3385 11089 3388 11095
      3410 11081 3408 11075 3401 11075 3400 11074
      3400 11063

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST FRI JUL 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN GREAT PLAINS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALLOWING A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE
OVER NORTHERN AZ. UNDER THIS PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVER
SOUTHERN AZ AS WELL AS NEW MEXICO SENT MOIST OUTFLOWS NORTH AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN AZ. THE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN AZ DEVELOPED A
DUST STORM...THE REMNANTS OF WHICH HAVE BROUGHT A LARGE AREA OF 3 TO
6 MILE SURFACE VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP FROM 0.71 INCHES YESTERDAY TO 0.84
INCHES TODAY...MUCH OF THIS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS UP 5
TO 20 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE
EXPECTING A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...COCONINO
PLATEAU...AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING SOMEWHAT STATIONARY...WILL
EXPECT THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO CONTINUE OR INCREASE...WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ALONG WITH THE
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 17-19Z TODAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL THEN. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO 45 KTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY.
MUCH OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM
AS WELL AS IN THE LCR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 04Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

ONTON/PETERSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST FRI JUL 20 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-210700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
940 AM MST FRI JUL 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AREAS FROM THE WINDOW ROCK AREA TO THE GRAND CANYON AND SOUTHWARD
CAN EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CHANCES FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN THE THREAT OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL OVER 3/4 INCH DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.