Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 15, 2007Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 15, 2007, 4:15 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 21 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 15, 2007, 4:15 PM MST (23:15 UTC)
Expired: Aug 15, 2007, 4:36 PM MST
In force: 21 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 523 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -72 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1515 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 3 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -21 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 15, 10:30 AM MST, 5 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 10:30 AM MST, 5 hours 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1030 AM MST WED AUG 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. BY
SATURDAY DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY EXPAND INTO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE RIM FIRST
AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI AND WESTERN
COCONINO COUNTY AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MOVE WEST OVER THESE AREAS. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS SHORTLY TO
INCREASE PRECIP CHCS IN SOME AREAS TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ALTHOUGH GUSTY AND VARIABLE TO AROUND 25 KTS IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFT 03Z...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TAPERING
OFF OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

TC/DJO

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 15, 10:20 AM MST, 5 hours 55 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1020 AM MST WED AUG 15 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-160700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1020 AM MST WED AUG 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. STORMS WILL FIRE EARLIER TODAY THAN USUAL AS IT IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF YAVAPAI
AND COCONINO COUNTIES. THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BRING DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DRYING TREND BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS STILL A
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS DUE TO THE TROPICAL STORM  DEVELOPING
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACT ON ARIZONA WEATHER
LATER THIS WEEK FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 15, 2:42 PM MST, 1 hour 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
242 PM MST WED AUG 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             CHINO VALLEY            34.76N 112.46W
08/15/2007  M1.00 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TOMC

Local storm report, Aug 15, 2:49 PM MST, 1 hour 26 minutes before

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Local storm report, Aug 15, 4:11 PM MST, 4 minutes before

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</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 15, 12:48 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	16 min
Aug 15, 2:22 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	23 min
Aug 15, 2:38 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila	26 min
Aug 15, 3:51 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	24 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.