Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1030 AM MST WED AUG 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. BY
SATURDAY DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY EXPAND INTO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE RIM FIRST
AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI AND WESTERN
COCONINO COUNTY AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MOVE WEST OVER THESE AREAS. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS SHORTLY TO
INCREASE PRECIP CHCS IN SOME AREAS TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ALTHOUGH GUSTY AND VARIABLE TO AROUND 25 KTS IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFT 03Z...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TAPERING
OFF OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

TC/DJO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1020 AM MST WED AUG 15 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-160700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1020 AM MST WED AUG 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. STORMS WILL FIRE EARLIER TODAY THAN USUAL AS IT IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF YAVAPAI
AND COCONINO COUNTIES. THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BRING DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DRYING TREND BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS STILL A
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS DUE TO THE TROPICAL STORM  DEVELOPING
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACT ON ARIZONA WEATHER
LATER THIS WEEK FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.