Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2007, 8:26 PM CDT for Benson County, Eddy County, North Dakota. It was in force for 49 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 15, 2007, 8:26 PM CDT (01:26 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 15, 2007, 9:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 49 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Benson County, ND, Eddy County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 8:45 PM CDT | HAIL 0.88 | 8 Ese New Rockford, ND | |
| Jul 15, 8:50 PM CDT | HAIL 0.88 | 4 Nw Grace City, ND | |
| Jul 15, 8:51 PM CDT | HAIL 1 | 1 Ssw Grace City, ND |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 5:49 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 176 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3065 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 46 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 207 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS53 KFGF 160126 SVRFGF NDC005-027-160215- /O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0099.070716T0126Z-070716T0215Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 826 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BENSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT * AT 822 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES EAST OF FORT TOTTEN...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 40 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... BRANTFORD AT 900 PM CDT... REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. LAT...LON 4802 9879 4800 9909 4720 9890 4725 9851 $$ DTR
1 follow-up statement
000 WWUS53 KFGF 160209 SVSFGF SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 909 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 NDC005-027-160219- /O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-070716T0215Z/ EDDY ND-BENSON ND- 909 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BENSON AND CENTRAL EDDY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM CDT... AT 909 PM CDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF CENTRAL EDDY AND SOUTHEASTERN BENSON COUNTIES. SO THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 915 PM CDT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. LAT...LON 4802 9879 4800 9909 4720 9890 4725 9851 $$ JK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 3:04 PM CDT, 5 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 3:04 PM CDT, 5 hours 22 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 304 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU WED)...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE EXTREME WEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING CAPES RANGING FROM 500 TO 1500 AND LIFTED INDICES NOW IN THE NEG 3 TO NEG 4 RANGE. THIS AREA HAS HEATED SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN REST OF CWA...WHICH HAS HAD SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP... WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THREAT REMAINS FAR WEST. ADDITIONALLY...VGPS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA ARE AROUND 0.2...AND 0.3 VALUES SHOULD SHIFT EAST. LCLS ARE LESS THAN 1000 FT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO TORNADIC ACTIVITY POTENTIAL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA...SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TIGHT H850 THETA E GRADIENT WELL INTO THE EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST QPF AND 12Z GFS GUIDANCE...WITH 24 HOUR ACCUMULATION TOTALS RANGING FROM ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE FA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...NAM AND GFS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS. GFS SHOWS A WAVE FORMING IN WESTERN ALBERTA LATE TONIGHT...AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO MONTANA AND ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GFS SHOWS SFC LOW DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NAM DROPS A 1018 MB HIGH DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON MONDAY. NAM HAS A MUCH COOLER SOLUTION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING IN. I LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AS I THINK THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF THE WAVE IN WRN ALBERTA FORMING AND KICKING OFF A SFC LOW TOMORROW. EVEN IF THE NAM HIGH DOES DROP DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOL AIR IS LIKELY OVERDONE. WILL KEEP NEAR MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR REMAINDER OF PERIOD. .LONG TERM (THU THROUGH SUN)...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO THE 500MB PATTERN...KEEPING THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS W OF THE AREA. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE REMAINS TE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES RIDING DO TRY TO BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA...ON THE EDGE OF THE HIGH...FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT. AS FAR AS TEMPS...SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. && .AVIATION...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH SCT -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFK AND KBJI...AND LATER INTO THE EVENING AT KFAR. ONCE TSRA THREAT PASSES...GENERALLY BY 06Z TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO SCT OUT BY MORNING. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && SPEICHER/NG
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 6:27 AM CDT, 13 hours 59 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 627 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-161130- WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS- WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE- EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN- SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN- WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER- PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON- GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT- RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY- 627 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD. LARGE HAIL...HIGH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA FROM 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD IN THIS AREA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM...IN COMBINATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL ASSIST IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRAMER
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 15, 7:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
705 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0635 PM HAIL HOPE 47.32N 97.72W
07/15/2007 E0.75 INCH STEELE ND TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
KRAMLICHLocal storm report, Jul 15, 7:06 PM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
706 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0650 PM HAIL PAGE 47.16N 97.57W
07/15/2007 E1.00 INCH CASS ND TRAINED SPOTTER
REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN.
&&
KRAMLICHLocal storm report, Jul 15, 7:11 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
711 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0650 PM HAIL GALESBURG 47.27N 97.41W
07/15/2007 E1.00 INCH TRAILL ND LAW ENFORCEMENT
0645 PM TSTM WND DMG HOPE 47.32N 97.72W
07/15/2007 STEELE ND LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL...1.5 INCHES OF RAIN AND FULL
GROWN PINE TREES BROKEN IN HALF.
0645 PM HAIL PAGE 47.16N 97.57W
07/15/2007 E1.75 INCH CASS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT
0645 PM HAIL 1 S PAGE 47.14N 97.57W
07/15/2007 E1.75 INCH CASS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
KRAMLICHLocal storm report, Jul 15, 7:47 PM CDT, 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
747 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0720 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 W KINDRED 46.65N 97.23W
07/15/2007 CASS ND TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD. HE WAS LOCATED
10 MILES WEST OF KINDRED OR ON THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 46
AND I-29 AND WAS LOOKING WEST.
&&
KRAMLICHLocal storm report, Jul 15, 8:14 PM CDT, 12 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
814 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0742 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E SHELDON 46.59N 97.39W
07/15/2007 M62 MPH RANSOM ND TRAINED SPOTTER
ERIC WHITHALL MEASURE TSTM WIND GUST OF 62MPH.
&&
KRAMLICHLocal storm report, Jul 15, 8:15 PM CDT, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
815 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM HAIL MCLEOD 46.39N 97.30W
07/15/2007 E1.75 INCH RANSOM ND TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
KRAMLICHThe office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 7:20 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Cass, Ransom | 40 min |
| Jul 15, 7:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Ramsey, Towner | 61 min |
| Jul 15, 7:58 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Ransom, Richland | 23 min |
| Jul 15, 8:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Barnes, Cass, Steele | 65 min |
| Jul 15, 8:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cass, Traill | 60 min |
| Jul 15, 9:29 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Cass | 31 min |
| Jul 15, 9:49 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Ransom | 26 min |
| Jul 15, 10:12 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Ransom, Richland, Sargent | 48 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2007Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.