Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 260825
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
324 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

NDC067-099-260900-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-070626T0900Z/
PEMBINA ND-WALSH ND-
324 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN PEMBINA AND NORTHEASTERN WALSH COUNTIES...

AT 320 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THE STORM
WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
GRAFTON...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

AT 317 AM CDT A SPOTTER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL 2 MILES NORTH 
OF GRAFTON.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL EASTERN PEMBINA COUNTY AT 340 AM CDT

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4852 9779 4840 9750 4851 9720 4897 9728
      4896 9753

$$

VOELKER

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 260855
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

NDC067-099-260905-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-070626T0900Z/
PEMBINA ND-WALSH ND-
355 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PEMBINA AND
NORTHEASTERN WALSH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 AM CDT...

AT 354 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR HUMBOLDT...OR 36 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GRAFTON...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SEVERE. SO
THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 400 AM CDT. 

LAT...LON 4852 9779 4840 9750 4851 9720 4897 9728
      4896 9753

$$

VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
308 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SASK ATTM AND IS
CAUSING A FAST TRANSITION FOR THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER ND.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
ND HAS LOST ITS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL JET...CONFIRMED BY ABR VWP.
SO EXPECT SLOW WEAKENING FOR THIS CLUSTER. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST ND TO GFK ARE QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST AND IS WHERE
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF 850 MB CIN INHIBITS STORM DEVELOPMENT. BUT THE
850 MB LOW CAUSING THESE STORMS IS QUICKLY BECOMING A WEAKENED OPEN
TROUGH. 850 MB CAPE AND CIN INDICATE THAT STRONG CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST MN CORNER NEXT COUPLE HOURS SINCE 250-300
MB DIVERGENCE IS BETTER THERE BUT 850 MB CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAKER.
THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME WESTERN ND DEVELOPED WELL BEHIND WHERE
MODELS SHOW CAPE BUT 850-250 MB JET COUPLET FOR AWHILE SUPPORTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THIS HAS SINCE LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. EXPECT THAT WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS
THAT THE LINE OF STRONG WIND APPARENTLY GENERATED BY COLLAPSING
STORMS NEAR MINOT WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE 50-55 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET SHOWING ON MBX/BIS VWP. THINK STRONG WIND WILL BE THE LAST
THREAT FROM STORMS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT.

WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT TOWARDS EAST BY NOON WITH MUCH
DRIER/STABLE AIR ARRIVING WITH THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONGER TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...LITTLE CHANGE NECESSARY BEYOND TODAY.
MODELS STILL INDICATE DRY EXCEPT POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. THIS WOULD BE AFTER THE UPPER LOW GOES
THROUGH ITS DAY LONG WOBBLE OVER SASK/MB THEN DIGS SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MN ARROWHEAD. THAT CHANCE LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM SINCE THE
LOW WILL BE MOVING TOO QUICKLY FOR MUCH MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST FROM DVL THIS
MORNING MAY RIDE BRIEFLY INTO GFK THIS MORNING EVEN THE MODELS
SAY NO. WILL CONSIDER IT FOR AN UPDATE. BUT OTHERWISE VFR STILL
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
546 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-261100-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
546 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...
MAINLY ON THE NORTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REGENERATE FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO LAKE OF THE WOODS THIS EVENING.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS MORNING AND THIS EVENING WILL
BE A RESULT OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR BEING LIFTED OVER A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM BISMARK TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS.

NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE REGION
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

RIVERINE FLOODING IS EITHER FORECAST OR WILL CONTINUE IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AT PEMBINA AND POINTS SOUTH...AND ON TRIBUTARIES OF
THE RED RIVER IN MINNESOTA FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO THE
LATEST HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AND THEN EAST OF THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

GV