Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 210524
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1224 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

MNC051-111-167-210615-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-070921T0615Z/
WILKIN MN-GRANT MN-OTTER TAIL MN-
1224 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN OTTER TAIL AND SOUTHEASTERN WILKIN
COUNTIES...

AT 1223 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
WEST OF WENDELL...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF FERGUS FALLS...MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ABOUT...
  6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN BY 1230 AM CDT...
  DALTON BY 1245 AM CDT...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4595 9625 4599 9625 4603 9626 4606 9639
      4626 9605 4625 9559 4614 9579 4578 9579
      4579 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 224DEG 38KT 4605 9616

$$

DK/BB

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 210539
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1239 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

MNC051-111-167-210615-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-070921T0615Z/
WILKIN MN-GRANT MN-OTTER TAIL MN-
1239 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN OTTER TAIL AND SOUTHEASTERN WILKIN
COUNTIES...

AT 1236 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DALTON...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF FERGUS FALLS...MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DALTON BY 1245 AM CDT...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4597 9620 4599 9625 4603 9626 4606 9639
      4626 9605 4625 9559 4614 9579 4594 9581
      4595 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 224DEG 38KT 4616 9600

$$

DK/BB

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 210613
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
112 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

MNC051-111-167-210622-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-070921T0615Z/
WILKIN MN-GRANT MN-OTTER TAIL MN-
112 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN
OTTER TAIL AND SOUTHEASTERN WILKIN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115 AM
CDT...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE STORM HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OTTER TAIL 
COUNTY SO THE WARNING FOR NORTHERN GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN OTTER TAIL 
AND SOUTHEASTERN WILKIN COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 115 AM 
CDT. 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4597 9620 4599 9625 4603 9626 4606 9639
      4626 9605 4625 9559 4614 9579 4594 9581
      4595 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0612Z 224DEG 38KT 4641 9565

$$

DK/BB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
913 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.UPDATE...
SO FAR THIS EVENING ALL ACTION HAS BEEN ASSOC WITH STRONG 50 KT
850 MB JET OVER ERN MN...WITH CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN ERN MN
AND NW WI. LATE AFTN SHOWED LOWER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT TO ABOUT THE
JMS-FAR-FFM AREAS WITH WINDS AND TEMPS SHOWING APPARENT WARM FRONT
BRIEFLY RIDING NORTH INTO FAR SE ND WITH LOWER 80S AT ELLENDALE
WHILE FARGO STAYED IN THE 60S. THIS EVENING HAS SHOWN WINDS
BACKING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER
NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN SO WARM FRONT MAY HAVE RETREATED
SOUTHWARD AGAIN BACK TO MORE A HON-ATY LINE BUT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT REAL WARM FRONT GETTING HARDER TO DEFINE.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINED CAPPED FOR SFC CONVECTION OVER NE SD LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE....SO NOW WAITING GAME IS ON TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS
AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE LOW LEVEL JET RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF WESTWARD
OVER NEBRASKA INTO ERN SD. 00Z RUC SHOWS STRONG 850 MB WIND
CONVERGENCE IN THE MN/SD/ND BORDER AREA 09Z TIME PD WITH 50 KT 850
MB JET OVER CNTRL SD GOING TO LESS THAN 20KT OVER FARGO-FERGUS
FALLS AREA. AREA OF 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX AND THETA-E MAXIMIZES
RIGHT IN AN AREA FROM ABERDEEN TO ELLENDALE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA. WITH ALL THIS CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB AND DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER NW/NCNTRL SD TONIGHT AHD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUG IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THAT VERY RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH SOME SVR THREAT AS WELL. BEST
BET 08Z-11Z PERIOD. SFC LOW PROG TO MOVE TO NR OR JUST EAST OF GFK
JUST PAST 12Z AND STILL DEEPENING. SFC LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO AIRMASS MUCH MORE MOIST THAN CURRENTLY OVER WRN ND/ERN MT AND
THUS WOULD EXPECT EXPANSION OF PCPN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS SYSTEM PULLS THROUGH. 00Z NAM CONTINUES ON A DEEPER AND
SLOWER SOLN AND GIVES WRAPAROUND RAIN MOST OF FRIDAY TO MUCH OF
ERN ND/NW MN.

&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OF FARGO-DTL AREAS THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING ALMOST GETTING TO GFK BUT LATEST FRAMES OF LOW CLOUD
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME EXPANSION OF LOWER CLDS BACK WEST AND SOUTHWEST
FROM GFK TOWARD JMS. SO TIME WILL TELL IF/WHEN GFK GETS OUT FROM
IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW PLAYED IT PESSIMISTIC TONIGHT
FOR GFK. AS FOR BEMIDJI LOWER CLOUDS NOW APPEAR ON THE WAY OUT
WITH A LARGE CLEARING AREA UP TO FOSSTON NOW. SO WOULD THINK BJI
MIGHT GET RID OF LOW CLOUDS BEFORE 05Z AND THEN STAY MAINLY VFR
REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LOWER CIGS AND PCPN ARRIVES AFTER 12Z.
KEPT FARGO VFR UNTIL LOWER CIGS AND SOME PCPN ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. LOOKS WINDY FRIDAY WITH G30KT PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

RIDDLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
915 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-211115-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
915 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND THEN CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN FRIDAY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

RIDDLE