Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 030108
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
808 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXC259-030200-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-070503T0200Z/
KENDALL TX-
808 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR KENDALL COUNTY...

AT 802 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARING...OR ABOUT 7
MILES SOUTH OF COMFORT...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WARING BY 815 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2998 9845 2996 9849 2991 9857 2976 9881
      2980 9893 2987 9893 2990 9892 3014 9866
      3014 9860

$$

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 030146
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
846 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXC259-030200-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-070503T0200Z/
KENDALL TX-
846 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR KENDALL COUNTY...

AT 840 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KENDALIA...OR ABOUT 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF BOERNE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KENDALIA BY 855 PM CDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES. IF A TORNADO IS 
SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY 
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2998 9845 2996 9849 2991 9857 2972 9876
      2980 9893 2987 9893 2990 9892 3014 9866
      3014 9860

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
651 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND WILL PASS KDRT WITHIN THE HOUR...AND REACH THE KAUS TO KSAT
CORRIDOR ARND 02Z. AHD OF THIS LINE SCT SHOWERS ARE DVLPG WITH
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS
AND DAMAGING HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIT SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY AROUND 06Z, LEAVING SCT-BKN
CLDS ABV 10K. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN FOG WILL DVLP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE VSBY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ARND
15Z AND CIGS LIFT TO 2500 FT BKN-SCT. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO FULL VFR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007/

UPDATE...TEXT AND GRID FORECASTS ISSUED TO UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH.
CHANGES MAINLY COSMETIC.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007/

.SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY...

DISCUSSION...
RAIN...SEVERE STORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES ARE IN STORE
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MUCH-ADVERTISED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA AND EXPANDS ALMOST ENTIRELY
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW
EAST-SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD
EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE STRONGEST OF
THE EXISTING STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...AND WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE STORMS APPROACH OUR
AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CAPRICIOUS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF QPF BULLS-
EYES, BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AVERAGES
WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. DESPITE WHERE ANY OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE, ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WITH MOST OF THE AREA STILL DEALING WITH
SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RAIN OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. DUE TO THE
OVERNIGHT TIMING OF THE STORMS, WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THE IMPORTANCE
THAT IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO TELL WHEN ROADWAYS HAVE BECOME
INUNDATED BY FLOOD WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IF POSSIBLE,
KEEP OVERNIGHT TRAVEL LIMITED AND REMAIN ALERT TO THE ONGOING
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE, LEADING TO A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND. BOTH MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP THE WARMER MORNING LOWS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT MAX
TEMPS WILL MODERATE A LITTLE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR,
THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SOME TIME BETWEEN EARLY MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE MODELS
HAVING DEPICTED THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, THERE HAS
BEEN VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH IS WHY THERE IS AS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST AS THERE IS.

STAYED WITHIN A CATEGORY OF GFS(X) NUMBERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  83  70  91  70 /  80  50  10   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  82  68  90  70 /  80  50  10   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  90  73  95  73 /  70  10  10   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  86  71  91  71 /  80  40  10   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...
LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

02/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
540 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>208-031045-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
540 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER THIS
MORNING AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.

TXZ209-217>225-228-031045-
FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
540 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER THIS
MORNING AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
738 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             CONCAN                  29.52N 99.73W
05/02/2007  M1.75 INCH       UVALDE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DC