Flash Flood Warning 279, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 032034
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
332 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

TXC385-032300-
REAL TX-
332 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR REAL
COUNTY...

AT 331 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
DETECT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING 
FROM LEAKEY TO 25 MILES NORTH OF LEAKEY. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 
INCHES PER HOUR WERE NOTED. 

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 2966 9997 2965 9975 3008 9978 3005 9997

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE SWWD OVER A TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
BECAUSE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL...BUT SHRA/TSRA WILL POP IN AND OUT OF THE PICTURE,
TEMPORARILY LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR. STRATUS DECK WILL
REDEVELOP BY 04-06Z, LOWERING SITES TO MVFR. MODERATE SE-SRLY SFC
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007/

UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOT
WELL ESTABLISHED YET..WILL BECOME SO BY LATE TONIGHT OVER OUR
EASTERN CWA. CONVECTION ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE AS HIGH DUE TO BLOCKED
INFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL CHANGE
HOWEVER BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) BECOMES
REESTABLISHED OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. EXPECT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHEAST CWA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER MAXIMA OF HEAVY RAINS OVER OUR SOUTHWEST
CWA IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER AS WELL. ON UPDATE
TWEAKED PROBABILITIES AND QPF TOTALS TO REFLECT ANTICIPATED
CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007/

DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE ON MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY
00Z THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST KEEPING MOISTURE HIGH IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS COMBINATION WILL MEAN HIGH POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ONLY MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD WHERE THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. SINCE THE NAM COMES INTO LINE WITH THE GFS
IN THE LATER PERIODS...DECIDED TO GO WITH GFS. STILL EXPECTING
SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE TWO TO THREE INCHES WITH EIGHT TO TEN
INCHES POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE WHETHER
OR NOT TO EXTEND IT.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO BRING SOME STABILITY TO THE CWA. POPS WILL DROP STARTING WITH
THIS PERIOD. WE WILL MOVE INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN
WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. WE WILL ALSO SEE HIGH TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  73  85  73  88 /  80  80  70  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  71  85  71  88 /  80  80  70  50  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  73  88  73  91 /  30  60  70  80  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  85  72  88 /  60  70  70  60  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

02/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-042000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TO
RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS
AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.