Flash Flood Warning 238, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 271918
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
217 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXC031-053-171-299-453-491-271930-
BURNET TX-LLANO TX-WILLIAMSON TX-TRAVIS TX-GILLESPIE TX-BLANCO TX-
217 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR 
BLANCO...GILLESPIE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...LLANO AND BURNET 
COUNTIES...

AT 215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED ONLY A FEW 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING HAS 
ENDED FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING 
AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED.

DUE TO EARLIER VERY HEAVY RAINS...NUMEROUS STREAMS AND RIVERS 
REMAIN IN FLOOD. SEE FLOOD WARNINGS...FLOOD STATEMENTS...AND RIVER 
STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 

IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED.   

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE LIFE YOU 
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

LAT...LON 3017 9907 3018 9834 3036 9820 3025 9792
      3081 9743 3100 9802 3087 9892 3048 9895

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1038 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

.UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED CONVECTION HAS WANED TEMPORARILY...HOWEVER NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
RADAR LOOP ALSO DEPICTED A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SAN SABA
COUNTY...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MCV. THIS AFTERNOON THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MCV. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPS ON THE UPDATE.
THE 12Z NAM12 SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT
THRU THURSDAY. THIS MODEL CORRECTLY FCSTED THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT
THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE
GFS SOLUTION IS LOW ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THIS
MORNING AS THE LEADING EDGE APPROACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SFC
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA MOST LIKELY
IMPACTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD.
ADJUSTMENT MADE TO 1ST PERIOD POPS AND SKY COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z BECOMING
CIGS 3 THSD TO 5 THSD BKN AFTER 18Z WITH SCT TSRA.  CIGS
FORMING AGAIN FROM 1 THSD TO 2 THSD FT OVC AFTER 04Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AND TO
EXTEND IT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. PLEASE REMAIN ALERT AS THE VERY
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007/

LIKELIHOOD FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WHICH MEANS BAD NEWS FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS VERY WET...AND VERY DANGEROUS...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALREADY HAVE CONCERNS THIS MORNING AS HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY. AN ESTIMATED 4 TO 8 INCHES HAS
FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF BURNET...LLANO...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTY
OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TOTALS OF 10 TO 12
INCHES BY SUNRISE. IF THAT WASNT ENOUGH...THERE IS A WELL DEFINED
MCS APPROACHING FROM THE BIG COUNTRY/TRANS-PECOS REGION. CURRENT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED EASTWARD AND EXTENDED IN
TIME IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS ARE
CLEARLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT RAINFALL OF 2-3
INCHES AN HOUR IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

RAIN CHANCES WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS HAD VERY POOR
INITIALIZATION FOR THE 00Z RUN...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO GO CLOSER TO
NAM NUMBERS AS IT NOT ONLY SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...BUT HAS ALSO PROVEN ITS WORTH OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THIS MEANS BAD NEWS FOR OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS AS THE NAM KEEPS GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS HIGH QPF
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL BE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO RUN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER TEXAS WHICH HAS BEEN CHANNELING
ALL OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED EACH
DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME WHAT
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN CHANCES
MAY DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE LEFT IN 20-30 POPS
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE INHIBITING WARMING. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY NORMALS
ACROSS THE REGION.

PLEASE REMAIN ALERT TO THE ONGOING DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  72  89  71  89 / 100  50  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  89  71  89  69  88 / 100  50  40  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  74  91  72  90 /  30  40  40  50  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  74  89  72  88 / 100  40  40  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

13/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-281100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
335 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING ALONG CREEKS...STREAMS...AND AT LOW WATER
CROSSINGS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND STRONG WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
700 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW LIBERTY HILL       30.70N 97.95W
06/27/2007                   WILLIAMSON         TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADWAY WASHED OUT ON COUNTY ROAD 201.

&&

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
806 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W HUNT                30.07N 99.35W
06/27/2007                   KERR               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FM 1340 WATER COVERING ROADWAY ABOVE HUNT. REPORT BY
            INGRAM FIRE AND RESCUE.

&&

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
903 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 AM     TSTM WND GST     LAUGHLIN AFB            29.36N 100.78W
06/27/2007  M0 MPH           VAL VERDE          TX   ASOS

            58 MILES PER HOUR WIND GUST

&&

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
927 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E KINGSLAND           30.66N 98.44W
06/27/2007  M0.00 INCH       LLANO              TX   UTILITY COMPANY

            9.18 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT AT FM 1431 BRIDGE.

0849 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 ENE MARBLE FALLS      30.61N 98.18W
06/27/2007  M0.00 INCH       BURNET             TX   UTILITY COMPANY

            17.38 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT. 24 HOUR TOTAL OF
            19.05 INCHES.

0849 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MARBLE FALLS            30.58N 98.27W
06/27/2007  M0.00 INCH       BURNET             TX   UTILITY COMPANY

            15.78 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT. 24 HOUR RAINFALL
            TOTAL OF 17.92 INCHES.

0849 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 WNW SPICEWOOD         30.51N 98.24W
06/27/2007  M0.00 INCH       BURNET             TX   UTILITY COMPANY

            SINCE MIDNIGHT 9.98 INCHES OF RAINFALL. 24 HOUR TOTAL OF
            10.55 INCHES.

0849 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSE BURNET            30.68N 98.19W
06/27/2007  M0.00 INCH       BURNET             TX   UTILITY COMPANY

            12.30 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. 24 HOUR TOTAL
            RAINFALL WAS 13.79 INCHES.

0849 AM     HEAVY RAIN       10 N MARBLE FALLS       30.72N 98.27W
06/27/2007  M0.00 INCH       BURNET             TX   UTILITY COMPANY

            SINCE MIDNIGHT 12.85 INCHES OF RAINFALL. 24 HOUR TOTAL
            RAINFALL WAS 13.45 INCHES

0849 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KINGSLAND               30.66N 98.45W
06/27/2007  M0.00 INCH       LLANO              TX   UTILITY COMPANY

            HONEY CREEK NEAR KINGSLAND MEASURED 10.16 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT AND DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.

0849 AM     HEAVY RAIN       8 SSW BERTRAM           30.64N 98.11W
06/27/2007  M0.00 INCH       BURNET             TX   UTILITY COMPANY

            SINCE MIDNIGHT 7.52 INCHES OF RAINFALL AND THE 24 HOUR
            TOTAL WAS 9.92 INCHES.

&&

CB