Flash Flood Warning 230, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 271005
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
500 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXC031-053-299-271300-
BURNET TX-LLANO TX-BLANCO TX-
500 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
BLANCO...LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES...

AT 500 AM CDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...
OVER BURNET...LLANO AND BLANCO COUNTIES...FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND CAUSE SERIOUS FLOODING OVER BURNET...LLANO...AND
BLANCO COUNTIES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES IS LIKELY
FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 20 
INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

FLOODING AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS...LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE  
AREAS...AND ALONG AND NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TOW...SUNRISE
BEACH VILLAGE...LLANO...KINGSLAND...INKS LAKE STATE PARK...GRANITE
SHOALS...CASTELL...BURNET AND BUCHANAN DAM

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3099 9789 3074 9807 3049 9819 3046 9820
      3043 9814 3006 9830 2996 9841 2996 9842
      3014 9858 3051 9858 3052 9896 3092 9896
      3092 9844 3089 9847 3086 9839 3101 9838
      3102 9790

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
346 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...LIKELIHOOD FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WHICH MEANS BAD NEWS FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS VERY WET...AND VERY DANGEROUS...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALREADY HAVE CONCERNS THIS MORNING AS HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY. AN ESTIMATED 4 TO 8 INCHES HAS
FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF BURNET...LLANO...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTY
OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TOTALS OF 10 TO 12
INCHES BY SUNRISE. IF THAT WASNT ENOUGH...THERE IS A WELL DEFINED
MCS APPROACHING FROM THE BIG COUNTRY/TRANS-PECOS REGION. CURRENT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED EASTWARD AND EXTENDED IN
TIME IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS ARE
CLEARLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT RAINFALL OF 2-3
INCHES AN HOUR IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

RAIN CHANCES WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS HAD VERY POOR
INITIALIZATION FOR THE 00Z RUN...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO GO CLOSER TO
NAM NUMBERS AS IT NOT ONLY SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...BUT HAS ALSO PROVEN ITS WORTH OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THIS MEANS BAD NEWS FOR OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS AS THE NAM KEEPS GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS HIGH QPF
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL BE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO RUN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER TEXAS WHICH HAS BEEN CHANNELING
ALL OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED EACH
DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME WHAT
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN CHANCES
MAY DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE LEFT IN 20-30 POPS
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE INHIBITING WARMING. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY NORMALS
ACROSS THE REGION.

PLEASE REMAIN ALERT TO THE ONGOING DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  72  89  71  89 /  50  50  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  89  71  89  69  88 /  50  50  40  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  91  72  90 /  40  40  40  50  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  74  89  72  88 /  40  40  40  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

25/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-281100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
335 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING ALONG CREEKS...STREAMS...AND AT LOW WATER
CROSSINGS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND STRONG WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
148 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARBLE FALLS            30.58N 98.27W
06/27/2007                   BURNET             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SERIOUS FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN BURNET COUNTY. 3 HOUR
            RAINFALL TOTALS 7 TO 9 INCHES WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
            AT ABOUT 4-5 INCHES.

0140 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KINGSLAND               30.66N 98.45W
06/27/2007                   LLANO              TX   MESONET

            SERIOUS FLOODING IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LLANO
            COUNTY. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES 1-3 INCHES. 2.5 TO 4.5
            INCHES GAGED PAST 2 HOURS.

&&

JPB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
207 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-270915-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
207 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...FAST MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST COMING
IN THE FEW HOURS...

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINS OVER PARTS OF LLANO....BURNET AND
BLANCO COUNTIES...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS FROM WEST OF
SAN ANGELO TO NORTH OF DRYDEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS IN A FEW HOURS TO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS AT FT STOCKTON GUSTED TO 66 MPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. A SIMILAR CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
THE NIGHT OF JUNE 4TH AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF JUNE 5TH
OF THIS YEAR MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE
MORNING HOURS.

JUNE 24TH TO JUNE 30TH THIS YEAR IS LIGHTNING SAFETY AWARENESS
WEEK. SUMMER IS THE PEAK SEASON FOR ONE OF THE NATIONS DEADLIEST
WEATHER PHENOMENA...LIGHTNING. IN THE PAST 30 YEARS... LIGHTNING
HAS KILLED MORE PEOPLE PER YEAR THAN WHAT WAS CAUSED BY TORNADOES
AND HURRICANES. HOWEVER...BECAUSE LIGHTNING USUALLY CLAIMS ONLY
ONE OR TWO VICTIMS AT A TIME...AND BECAUSE LIGHTNING DOES NOT
CAUSE THE MASS DESTRUCTION LEFT IN THE WAKE OF TORNADOES OR
HURRICANES...LIGHTNING GENERALLY RECEIVES MUCH LESS ATTENTION THAN
THE MORE DESTRUCTIVE WEATHER-RELATED KILLERS. WHILE DOCUMENTED
LIGHTNING INJURIES IN THE UNITED STATES AVERAGE ABOUT 300 PER
YEAR...UNDOCUMENTED INJURIES CAUSED BY LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY MUCH
HIGHER.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455 IS IN EFFECT FOR VAL VERDE...
EDWARDS AND KINNEY COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING.