Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
130 AM MDT TUE MAY 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECASTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING WARMER DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50 OVER
WESTERN TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW NOW ENTERING
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH THE EPZ CWA LOCATED IN ASSOCIATED LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF 90 KT UPPER JET ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING IS PRESENT. STRONG SHEAR ALSO EXISTS AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS VEER TO SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY AT 40 KT ALOFT. THUS
STORMS EXHIBITING ROTATION AND HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED GOLF BALL
SIZED HAIL. LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH DYNAMIC LIFT/COOLING ALOFT INDUCING AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING IN.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE CWA. FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL BY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING ACROSS
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER LATEST GFS INDICATES DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
EXTENDED PERIODS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  52  78  55  87 /  50  30  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        68  49  71  50  85 /  60  40  30   0   0
LAS CRUCES              74  48  77  51  88 /  50  30  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              70  46  73  50  84 /  50  30  20   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              51  33  54  37  63 /  60  40  30   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  45  75  50  84 /  50  30  20   0   0
SILVER CITY             66  41  69  46  77 /  50  40  10   0   0
DEMING                  75  47  78  51  89 /  40  30  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               76  47  79  51  90 /  40  30  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 AM MDT TUE MAY 8 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-091245-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
200 AM MDT TUE MAY 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING HAIL OVER AN INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING
AND PRODUCING FLOODING OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS
...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

ROGASH

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